This is the first of a planned series of occasional diaries that will track the National Draft Gore Movement, its size and progress and how it is doing in different states and segments of the population, until Al Gore makes a definitive statement about whether or not he will seek the Democratic nomination for President in 2008. It will report actual head-counts of participation and support through petitions, meetups, numbers of contributions, pledge drives, and the like, not polling data, as new and interesting data become available.
The Academy Awards ceremony on February 25 marks a watershed for the National Draft Gore Movement.
This day has been eagerly anticipated by Gore supporters, and Gore himself is reported to have focused on the ceremony for several months because An Inconvenient Truth has been nominated for two Oscars. If it receive even one, the movie and Gore will receive a new wave of publicity. Whether or not it does, he will then go on to other things, the publication of his book "The Assault on Reason" (May 22) and the Live Earth concert that he is promoting (July 7)and perhaps then presidential politics.
So how is the Draft Gore Movement doing so far this year? You've heard the buzz, what do the numbers tell us?
During the first two months of 2007, news of the Democratic presidential race has been dominated by the explorations and announcements of John Edwards, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and others. Meanwhile, DraftGore.com has been quietly and steadily gathering signatures on its on-line petition supporting Gore's candidacy, a cumulative total of 38,805 as of last night.
The rate of new signatures picked up in early February and rose to over 4,297 thousand between February 11, the day of Mike Stark's Trouble in Goreville diary was posted, and February 13. Mid-February was slow, but signatures have again accelerated, thanks in part to an ad in DailyKos.
If you've ever read the signatures and comments on DraftGore.com, which are all on-line, and wonder if these numbers include the obvious spoofs or trolls posting hostile comments, I'm informed by the folks at DraftGore.com that these signatures are continually purged by volunteers. It's a lot of work for them, thanks to the freepers, but there's a big payoff in putting the names and comments out for everyone to see.
As of February 12, mid-way through the Gore-ville surge, there were 32,284 signatures, with states reported for all but about 3 thousand. The top ten states contained a few surprises:
1 California 5421
2 New York 2446
3 Florida 1719
4 Texas 1377
5 Washington 1193
6 Pennsylvania 1028
7 Massachusetts 1025
8 Oregon 1002
9 Illinois 983
10 New Jersey 883
Washington, Massachusetts, and Oregon are not top-10 states in population. When the number of signatures are compared to a measure of population, the number of votes cast for President in 2004, a more interesting regional pattern is seen. On a per voter basis, there are more signatures in the East and the West, led by the District of Columbia, Oregon, and Vermont. In the West, the strength is not just on the coast but in the interior, in Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado.
Support for petition is below the national average in most of the South and the Midwest with the exception of Gore's home state, Tennessee.
The other measures of the Draft Gore Movement's progress I can report this week are from the Draft Al Gore Meetup groups, of which there are now 92 in the U.S. (and 4 in other countries) with a total of 862 members. Meetups sprang up at a rapid clip in January, increasing from 8 late December to 83 in early February.
Of the ten largest meetup groups, six are in states with above average petition-signing rates, California (Belvedere-Tiburon), New York (New York), Oregon (Portland), Colorado (Denver), Tennessee (Nashville), and Massachusetts (Cambridge. Two are in large metro areas, in Illinois (Chicago) and Texas (Dallas). The surprise is that Missouri (Kansas City) and Kansas (Lawrence) also are in the top ten. Someone is obviously doing some organizing there. Congrats.
Tune in next time to find out whether Gore's expected appearance at the Oscars has helped the movement to draft him for a different role.
(Thanks to M. Friedlander of DraftGore.com for providing data and information. Suggestions for new sources of data are most welcome. I will be off-line for most of the weekend but will respond to comments on Sunday evening during the Oscars.)