Tally wrote an interesting diary a few days ago about the 2006 election in Florida, analyzing why Alex Sink and Bill Nelson won in 2007. I noticed something interesting, and maybe some FL Kossacks can share insight.
People claim that the I-4 area in the state swings elections. However, I looked at some of the counties that he highlighted, and I noticed something about the counties in the Middle Panhnalde. Although they are small in population, they seem to have played a significant role in picking successful statewide Democratic candidates.
More beneath the fold.
Florida's 2nd District, held by Allan Boyd, holds these counties in the Middle Panhnalde. Important counties within district include Calhoun, Franklin, Gulf, Liberty, and Wakulla.
Here is the breakdown of voter registration for those counties:
Calhoun D: 6,789; R: 1,210
Franklin D: 5,499; R: 1,422
Gulf: D: 5,805; R: 2,664
Liberty D: 3,481; R: 381
Wakulla: D: 10,568; R: 4,454
In the 2006 election Bill Nelson won all of those counties, per this map (for some reason Kos's system won't let me display it directly):
2006 FL Senate Race
Note that Dave Leip's site inverts the colors. On his map the Democrats are Red and the Republicans are blue.
In the Governor's race, however, Jim Davis didn't fare as well:
2006 FL Governor's Race
The next map is Betty Castor's 2004 Senate race performance:
2004 FL Senate Race
Castor did win some of those counties, but by a lesser margin than Nelson did in 2006. She lost Calhoun and Gulf counties. She won Franklin, Liberty, and Wakulla, though; but she trailed Nelson's 2006 performance. She split those counties with Mel Martinez, who won statewidey by approximately 70,000 votes.
So the next comparison would be to Nelson's 2000 results. Nelson's race with Bill McCollum was much more competetive, and thus I now post that map:
FL 2000 Senate Race
Nelson won all of those four counties that I mentioned by at least 8%. He ran ahead of Castor in 2004 there.
Finally I include the 2002 Governor's race, which Bush won in a landslide. McBride came from that part of FL, so the numbers are a little tainted. However, he won three out of the four counties, losing Gulf County.
The map from 2002:
FL 2002 Governor Race
While I don't have a map for Alex Sink's succesful 2006 campaign for treasurer, I can post the county-by-county results for those counties:
Calhoun 1,595 (R) 1,709 (D)
Franklin 1,583 (R) 2,183 (D)
Gulf: 2,350 (R) 2,243 (D)
Liberty: 736 (R) 1,011 (D)
Sink won three out of the four counties, but lost Gulf by a narrow margin. So she prevailed in those counties, but Davis didn't.
So it seems like the counties in the 2nd district often seem to be bellweathers in FL statewide races. The key question to research is why Nelson and Sink were attractive to those voters, while Davis and other Democratic candidates were not. McBride was able to fare well there, but lost everywhere else except SE Florida; but he was from there.
In terms of presidential races Clinton won three out of the four counties in 1996, losing Liberty, when he carried the state. But that seemed to be due to the Perot vote. In 2000 Gore won none of them and Kerry fared miserably there too. The comparison seems most apt for statewide races below the presidential level.
Voters in this part of Florida seem willing to support non-presidential statewide Democrats. The key question to ask is why they supported Sink and Nelson, but were lukewarm about Castor and rebuffed Davis. Quite possibly this part of the state might be more of a "swing region" than the I-4 corridor, which is probably more relevant for presidential races.
I think that, if the Democratic Party is to rebound in FL, they need to focus their attention on the Middle Panhandle. Although these are the "Democrats who voted for Bush in 2000", which the Naderites use as an excuse to shield blame from the Greens in the FL debacle, they seem willing to stick with the party in non-presidential statewide races. While they may be lost in presidential contests they seem to show some willingness to support Democrats like Bill Nelson, Bill McBride, and Alex Sink. Presidentially they might even support John Edwards or a Democrat who can appeal to their "southern" instincts, but I don't see Obama or Hillary (eve though her husband carried those counties) faring well there.
So anyway I think that, while the I-4 corridor is important in statewide races, Dean's 50 state strategy should encourage on bringing back those "Democrats" to the party. They haven't abandoned the party entirely, such as their bretheren in Baker County (closer to Jacksonville, still overwhelmingly Democratic by registration, but votes Republican in most races); and they do seem willing to support the right type of Democrat.
Anyway I was wondering what you all thought. Am I onto something or grossly missing the point?