lead to some interesting discussions. It is patently stupid to participate in what if discussions of voter behavior based on emotional attachment to one outcome or another.
It is my understanding that the most recent election for the South Carolina Superintendent of Public Instruction was unusual: The winner, Dem. Jim Rex defeated the Republican opponent Karen Floyd by 455 votes out of a total of 1081916. The point is that every single other party candidate, including write-ins, exceeded the difference between the front runners. In fact, if you add the Libertarians to the Republicans and the Greens to the Democrats, it would not have needed a recount. So, what is the spoiler effect? It is hard to tell.
In the state with which I am most familiar, California, the number of registered voters for both the Republican and the Democrats has declined. In 1994, Democrats had 48% of registered voters while the Republicans had 37.2%. In the latest published state-wide numbers, the Democrats declined to 42.5% and the Republicans to 34.3%. According to a September, 2006 news release from the California Secretary of State....
According to a recent Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) report, California’s electorate increasingly does not reflect the state’s population and voter registration has grown at a slower rate than the State’s population. According to the Secretary of State’s most recent report of registration, only 69 percent of eligible voters are registered to vote.
Mostly, they checked the Decline to State box when they registered. The other parties have not grown in proportion to the major party losses.
Why is this? If I knew for sure, I would be at UC Berkeley or Stanford as a political guru. But, I think that you could make the case that the extreme partisanship of the extremes of both parties is turning off the electorate.
Until progressives get over the emotional reactions to the spoiler issue and start looking at facts, data and drawing rational conclusions from them, progressives will not become a majority no matter how loudly we yell. It matters little if the progressives call themselves members of the PDA, Greens or Peace and Freedom Socialists you won't win the majority.