A recent report by the Canadian Defense and Foreign Affairs Institute (CDFAI) outlines the current state of the occupation, reconstruction, and rehabilitation of Afghanistan. The report paints a dark picture of the future in Afghanistan unless "prompt, effective action" is taken. The situation is extremely complex, but the report does an excellent job of reviewing historical, political, geographical, military, and social justice implications and requirements for success.
The report begins with a summary of NATO and Canada’s goals in Afghanistan, including the bottom line goal of "isolating al-Qa’ida from the mainstream Taliban and finding incentives to dissuade the Taliban from a commitment to international jihadi violence..." and it concludes that while this will be quite difficult, it may "possibly be achieved at the local level over time."
The report concludes that eliminating the Taliban is militarily impossible. They need to be brought into some sort of political solution, by working with the Pashtun majority in Afghanistan, essentially turning the Pashtuns against the Taliban by convincing them that NATO and Canada will stick with them for the long-term, and are the better bet for achieving their goals. (Admittedly a very tall order).
Another source of difficulty is the catastrophe that is the current situation. Civilian casualties are up "as a result of misdirected fire from American-led coalition forces." Poppy destruction has alienated the locals from the British, Americans, and Afghan government by destroying the only livelihood available to the population. The food aid distribution system in the south of Afghanistan has collapsed, "causing a severe famine."
Pakistan will play a "pivotal role." The issue dates back to the British occupation and their placement of the border through the middle of the Pashtun areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan. A nice historical primer of the Durand line, why it’s important, and the impact of Afghan, Pakistani, and Pashtun/Taliban politics on the overall situation is included.
The report’s author, Gordon Smith, was interviewed on As It Happens on the CBC last night, March 1. A key problem in Afghanistan has been securing adequate troops, and the report indicates the severity of the shortage. The report quotes James Dobbins, the first US ambassador to Afghanistan after the defeat of the Taliban.
The Average Kosovar got 25 times more assistance after 11 weeks of air war than Afghanistan got after 20 years. And in terms of peacekeeping, Kosovo got 50 times more on a per capital basis than Afghanistan.
The key reason for this lack of resources, according to the CBC interview is the US distraction in Iraq. The US is tapped out, and cannot come to the aid of NATO in the most important front in the GWOT, and the rest of NATO is reluctant to get involved in what is perceived as bailing out the US in yet another misadventure created by American adventurism in the Middle East.
The report concludes with a set of recommendations. They aren’t cheap, easy, or quick:
• A ten year presence, at minimum, will be required.
• NATO military will be in country far beyond 2009.
• The size and quality of the Afghan national army and police must increase.
• Aerial bombing must be replaced by boots on the ground – both Afghan and NATO
• Food aid must be improved quickly and substantially.
• Security for reconstruction project sites must be improved
• Poppy eradication must be replaced by a better system. A poppy purchasing board may be a solution, with the west buying the poppy crop.
• The educational system must be enhanced, at the primary and university level.
• A system needs to be created to provide immediate recovery and reconstruction aid to villages after military action.
A sobering report. What can we do? Obviously, the US has played a huge role in creating this mess. Our military is tapped out, sending more US troops is nearly if not completely impossible. Diplomacy, begging, I honestly don't know where we should go or what we should do, but we have unleashed a huge firestorm, and it's only going to get worse if we don't get help from our NATO and other allies.
A hearty helping of crow is on our plate, and we had better get eating. Thanks once again to George W. Bush, the neocons, and the free market ideologues for railroading us into this mess.
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