This is a followup on my diary: Iranian Nuclear Reactor Good/Bad News which I published on Feb 20, 2007
From that diary:
Iran, with Russian technical support, is building a nuclear reactor at Bushehr.
The plans were for the Russians to deliver the nuclear fuel in March 2007, for the reactor to be finished by November 2007.
At the time of that dairy, the argument was over did or did not Iran pay Russia the money to build the reactor.
Now, though, according to this article Russia Gives Iran Ultimatum on Enrichment Russia says NO more help on the reactor until Iran suspends its uranium enrichment as demanded by the UN.
More details from the above article:
The ultimatum was delivered in Moscow last week by Igor Ivanov, Russia’s Security Council Secretary, to Ali Hosseini Tash, Iran’s deputy chief nuclear negotiator, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because a confidential diplomatic exchange between two governments was involved.
Recently, however, Moscow and Tehran have been engaged in a public argument about whether Iran has paid its bills, in a dispute that may explain Russia’s apparent shift. The ultimatum may also reflect Moscow’s increasing displeasure and frustration with Iran over its refusal to stop enriching uranium at its vast facility at Natanz.
"We consider this a very important decision by the Russians," a senior European official said. "It shows that our disagreements with the Russians about the dangers of Iran’s nuclear program are tactical. Fundamentally, the Russians don’t want a nuclear Iran."
On a pure money level, Russia wants Iran to use RUSSIAN nuclear fuel, not having Iran make their own fuel. The US, generally, supports this, as it means that the spent nuclear fuel rods will be returned to Russia, instead of staying in Iran, where the Iranians could reprocess that fuel and extract U-238 or Plut. 235 from it.
But last month, Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov informed some European officials that Russia had made a political decision not to deliver the fuel, adding that Russia would state publicly that the sole reason was financial, European officials said.
However...
In remarks on Sunday, for example, Mr. Ivanov said there should be no linkage between discussions on Iran’s nuclear program and the Bushehr plant. "It is a separate issue," he told a conference of Russia’s Foreign and Defense Policies Council. "All the work being done is under strict control of the International Atomic Energy Agency," the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog agency based in Vienna.
And today came this article: Russia Denies Threat to Halt Iranian Nuclear Fuel on Enrichment
The New York Times reported today that Igor Ivanov, the head of Russia's Security Council, issued an ultimatum to Ali Hosseini Tash, Iran's deputy nuclear negotiator, at a meeting in Moscow last week.
``This wording was never used,'' Dmitry Peskov, President Vladimir Putin's spokesman, said in a telephone interview in Moscow today in which he also confirmed the meeting took place. ``Ivanov discussed with his Iranian counterpart some issues relating to Bushehr concerning the financial debt of the Iranian side.''
Sigh... When the diplomats can't get their stories straight...
Given the fact that NO fuel is scheduled to be delievered to Iran (a couple ofarticles say that the delievery will occur, but 2 months late), and given the importance of Bushehr, I'm inclined to believe that something beyond money is involved and that Russia has given Iran some sort of ultimatum.
There is even more confusion about what is happening with Bushehr. There is this article: Russian nuclear experts leave Iran
Some Russian specialists who came to Iran to build the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the country’s south are starting to leave the Islamic Republic, the Russian nuclear power agency said Tuesday.
"We have registered an outflow of specialists from Iran, and some subcontractors are refusing to supply equipment for the NPP," press secretary Sergei Novikov said.
Vladimir Pavlov, the head of Atomstroyexport’s department for the construction of Bushehr NPP, told RIA Novosti: "The lack of clear measures in the current conditions may lead to project delays. We cannot wait for Iran’s decision any longer. The postponement of financing will have irreversible consequences."
Then there is this article: Outside View: Russia resumes Bushehr work
The executives of the Russian company Atomstroyexport have decided to resume work on the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, which was suspended two months ago because of the Iranians' failure to pay.
The Russians have explained this unexpected decision by the fact that the lack of funding has triggered a major crisis in the project's implementation. Specialists have begun to leave the site because of the project's inactivity and vague prospects, and suppliers have suspended deliveries of equipment.
Hmmm... That second article doesn't make a lot of sense does it? the title: Russia resumes Bushehr work inside the article: Specialists have begun to leave the site because of the project's inactivity and vague prospects,
So are Russian engineer's leaving the plant? Well, if I knew that it would be, at least, 2 months before anything happened, I'd go on vacation, so that could account for some of those leaving. Since, I don't know how many are leaving (articles say that there are up to 3,000 Russians are on the site), there is no way to know if it's just a few leaving, or if most of the Russians are leaving.
Then there is this warning:
Vladimir Pavlov, the head of Atomstroyexport's department for the construction of Bushehr NPP, told RIA Novosti, "The lack of clear measures in the current conditions may lead to project delays. We cannot wait for Iran's decision any longer. The postponement of financing will have irreversible consequences."
link
And Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will be speaking at the UN soon.
In my previous diary, I gave my opinion that the nuclear fueling of Bushehr was a red-line for US/Iranian relations, I still believe in that. If the Russians are leaving the site, that makes it, in my opinion, easier to attack the plant.
IF the Russians were on site, they would be killed, which would provoke a reaction from Russia. IF there is no Russians and if they've canceled the contract/project, then the reaction from Russia might be lessened, no?
thank you for reading
jeff