If you have or haven't heard it yet, but the winner of Iowa Caucus WILL win the Democratic Nomination for President in 2008 without a doubt.
As of today, the New York state legislature approved legislation to move up thier March primary date to February 5th, in order to become a major player in deciding presidential nominees.
Ultimately, this action to front-load the primary schedule puts a major premium on how the first-tier candidates (Billary, Obama, Edwards) perform in the Iowa Caucus early next year. Want more proof that winning the first caucus determines who garners the presidential nomination of your party. Just look below and read these staggering exit poll results from 2004 Iowa-caucus-goers and New Hampshire primary-voters in the first two states participating in the primary process.
The Cnn Exit poll from the 2004 of Iowa-Caucus-Goers reveals that 41% of Iowa-Caucus voters determined who they were voting for in the previous month, while 56% of (goers) decided before that time-period. Furthermore, 21% of Iowa Caucus-goers choose thier candidate in the last three days, 21% in the last week, and 27% in the last month.
These statistics clearly show that approximately over 2/3's of voters at the moment have no favorite candidate. (the number is probably higher knowing the cacus is 10 months away)
Even more shocking is that in 2004 New Hampshire primary voters were even more undecided than the Iowa-Caucus goers. Cnn exit poll numbers show that 54% of voters made up thier mind regarding thier candidate of choice in the last week, while 45% were decided before that time.
However, what convinces me the most that the winner of the Iowa-Cacus will catapult towards the nomination is that 35% of New Hampshire primary voters made up thier mind about thier candidate of choice in the last three days heading up to thier state's presidential primary.
Thus, all of the positive press (online and MSM), momentum, and national media attention the Iowa-Caucus winner recieves greatly influences the minds of undecided/leaning primary participants to the point where it solidfies that individual candidate's campaign with a permanent binding impact of de-facto vote-buying.
As a result, John Edwards is in perfect-position to upset the two frontrunners that the MSM has fallen in love with over the last couple of months primarly because of two major factors: his strong organization in Iowa since 2004 and the vast majority of influential Vilsack support he has gained since his departure from the race.
As we know, Iowa Cacus-goers aren't looking for the most lovable candidate, but the candidate who is the most electable, cares about people, takes strong substantive stands on the positions, and has the right experience to be president. For me, that means John Edwards should and will be the next Democratic nominee for President.
Other random notes- (With polls showing that close to 20% of democratic primary voters will not vote for Hillary Clinton no matter what and these type of individuals are most likely are going to participate in primary events...it doesn't look good for Hillary)
2004 Iowa Caucus Party ID
Democrat 79%
Independent 19%
Republican 1%
Ideology
Very Liberal 17%
Somewhat Liberal 39%
Moderate 37%
Conservative 6%
Union Household 23%
2008 Democratic Primary Schedule
- January 14, 2008 - Iowa (caucus)
- January 19, 2008 - Nevada (caucus)
- January 22, 2008 - New Hampshire (primary)
- January 29, 2008 - South Carolina, Florida (possibly)
- February 5, 2008 - Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Utah
- February 9, 2008 - Nebraska
- February 10, 2008 - Maine (caucus)
- February 12, 2008 - District of Columbia, Tennessee, Virginia
- February 19, 2008 - Wisconsin
- February 26, 2008 - Hawaii, Idaho, New Jersey
- March 2008 (date to be determined) - American Samoa, Democrats Abroad, Guam, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, U.S. Virgin Islands, Wyoming
- March 4, 2008 - Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
- March 7, 2008 - Colorado
- March 8, 2008 - Kansas
- March 11, 2008 - Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma
- March 18, 2008 – Illinois
- April 2008 (date to be determined) - Alaska
- April 1, 2008 – Pennsylvania
- May 6, 2008 - Indiana
- May 13, 2008 - West Virginia
- May 20, 2008 - Kentucky, Oregon (primary)
- May 27, 2008 - Washington (primary)
- June 3, 2008 - Montana, South Dakota