On March 23rd American Research Group released primary polling from Iowa, New Hampshire, Arkansas, and Texas. Their website also has intrastate polling from 24 states. In this diary I report early primary polling data and summarize some of the trends American Research Group polling indicates.
First, four technical points.
- I use the most recent polling data from each available state - the vast majority of states have only one poll. The downside of this methodology is that I've taken polls from January, February, and March. Because the polls are taken at different points in time, they aren't directly comparable. Nevertheless, some interesting trends emerge.
- The polls are all from a single polling source. The results are somewhat divergent from other polling sources in places. The plus and the minus of this approach is that the same biases should effect each poll. Therefore, if for some reason, Obama runs strong by their methodology, it should be consistent across polls.
- Margin of error. The site offers the ability the calculate the margin of error by hand for each poll. After a little digging, it was not clear to me where I could get the information to do this. Instead I've used 3 points as the margin of error for each poll. If two candidates are within 3 points, I've labeled the race tied - but report which candidate is narrowly leading and my how much.
- I've included Clinton, Edwards, and Obama (in alphabetical order) for simplicity's sake. The other candidates were included in the polls as well. I am just not reporting their results - each of the other candidate polled under 5% with the following exceptions. Clark polls at 8% in Arkansas (3/23/07). Dodd polls at 14% in Connecticut (1/07). Richardson polls at 28% in New Mexico (1/07). Undecided is also consistently getting between 10% and 25% of the vote.
Now - the results.
Results fell into two major patterns: Clinton first, Obama second, Edwards third in 9 states.
Candidate | Arkansas | Michigan | South Carolina | Arizona | Massachusetts | Nevada | New Mexico | Utah | Vermont |
Clinton | 49 | 35 | 36 | 33 | 35 | 37 | 22 | 31 | 37 |
Edwards | 12 | 14 | 20 | 13 | 19 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 14 |
Obama | 16 | 30 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 12 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
Clinton leading with Edwards and Obama within the margin of error in 7 states.
Candidate | New Hampshire | Alabama | Connecticut | Maine | Mississippi | Oklahoma | Pennsylvania |
Clinton | 37 | 44 | 40 | 41 | 30 | 40 | 32 |
Edwards | 20 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 12 |
Obama | 23 | 13 | 10 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 13 |
There were also a handful of exceptions.
In 3 polls including the overall Clinton and Obama are within the margin of error with Edwards 3rd.
Candidate | OVERALL | Texas | California |
Clinton | 34 | 34 | 36 |
Edwards | 15 | 11 | 6 |
Obama | 31 | 32 | 33 |
In Florida, Clinton leads, Edwards polls second, and Obama is third.
Candidate | Florida |
Clinton | 36 |
Edwards | 20 |
Obama | 14 |
Edwards is tied with Clinton in Iowa. Obama is third.
Candidate | Iowa |
Clinton | 34 |
Edwards | 33 |
Obama | 16 |
Obama and Edwards are both leading their home states: Illinois and North Carolina, respectively.
Candidate | Illinois | North Carolina |
Clinton | 30 | 26 |
Edwards | 5 | 30 |
Obama | 36 | 19 |
March 23rd polls - Texas, Arkansas, Iowa, New Hampshire
March 4th or 8th - Overall, Florida, South Carolina, Michigan
February 2007 - Alabama, Arizona, Oklahoma, Utah, Vermont
January 2007 - California, Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania
December 2006 - Nevada
I'm noticing a few trends.
- Clinton is strong across the boards - generally in the low to mid 30's. Her support only drops below 30% in other candidate's home states (North Carolina and New Mexico). She is running stronger (above 40%) in Arkansas (no surprise), Alabama, Maine, and Oklahoma. Though its hard to say for sure, the only uniting factor I see is that all three states (besides Arkansas) were polled in January or February.
- Obama seems to be running more strongly in either the Southwest or the West (we're missing Oregon, Washington, Montana, the Dakotas, and Colorado so it's hard to say which one it is). He is either tied with Clinton or alone in second in California, Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and Utah. He is also third behind Richardson in New Mexico.
- Edwards seems to be running stronger in the South. He is in second or tied for second in Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi. He is also leading North Carolina (his home state). He is, however, five points behind Obama in South Carolina (and both are well back from Clinton there).
- In the battle for second, the Northeast is starting to lean toward Obama. He is firmly in 2nd in Massachusetts and Vermont, and slightly ahead of Edwards though within the margin of error in New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Maine.
Thoughts?