Yesterday there was an an EtOH diary, initially based on a WaPo editorial, which received a lot of interest, and a lot of comments, some of them related to the article, and some to the diary:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
Anyway, here is another view of the EtOH as fuel vs. Imported Oil based fuel vs. Fuel or Food vs. the idea that our country must keep driving more and more in inefficient vehicles so that our transportation fuel consumption keeps rising at least as fast as the population, if not more (which is a really dumb idea, but popular).
EtOH is a Part of the Car Fueling Problem (0 / 0)
Right now, the US uses about 9.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) of gasoline to run our cars, that get about 20 mpg on average. Doubling the mpg would mean that the same number of car miles could be driven, but use only 4.75 mbpd of gasoline. Let's then chop the number of miles travelled in a year by 50% (car pooling, more sensible housing and housing locations, telecommuting, more mass transit in urban areas, and between urban areas) and now we get down to about 2.4 mbpd of gasoline...this would also mean that we don't have to import a lot of oil from outside the country, and our crude oil consumption might also drop from more than 20 mbpd to near 6 mbpd, which is near the current US production level, but which is dropping every year...And the less oil that is imported, the better out economy can become, and the less we have to kiss up to many foreign dictators, who the world might be better off without, but who are unlikely to go away as long as we keep shoving boatloads of bucks their way.
So, 2.4 mbpd of gasoline, or about 1.9 mbpd of hydrocarbons, and 0.6 mbpd of EtOH...which is about what we will make in 2008 or 2009 (9.2 billion gallons/year) year from crops, as a 20% blend. Or, flip it around, about 2 mbpd of EtOH would be needed if that car fuel requirement was based on 85% EtOH/15 % "other" (gasoline, butanol, etc).
The thing is, to do this means higher gasoline prices, much more than is presently the case, and more importantly, the expectation that they will be higher in the future. Preferably this will be done via gasoline excise/sales taxes, but otherwise, the oil companies will gladly do this and squander the money on themselves and their executives/management. Geez, if gasoline goes about $6/gallon, making EtOH from cellulose might even be viable, but noweher near as profitable as making it from corn, which still only costs around $1.50 to $2/gallon to produce and still yield very reasonable (at least for the manufacturers) profits. Making bio-fuels from crops (= sugars and starches) will be cheaper than making fuels from cellulose until the prices of those crops rise to more than triple what they currently are going for - in other words, about $10 to $12 per bushel for corn (it's about $4/bushel right now).
As to the need for non-renewable fuels to make "renewable" fuels - not necessarily the case. Raise the cost of gasoline via sales taxes, and producers of bio-fuels can afford the capital to eliminate the need for moast or all of the coal and/or natural gas presently used to convert the corn to EtOH and high protein concentrate (DDGS). Or wait a couple of years for natural gas prices to zoom up again (hurricanes, anyone?), and this will become standard operating procedure. There are many approaches to this, most site specific. Ingenuity can work, but not when oil and natural gas prices can suppress such approaches. Also, keep in mind that the price of EtOH is presently set by the price of gasoline...and that natural gas prices have historically been very unpredictable in the last few years, and this will be even more likely as we move past 6 years of "post peak" natural gas (peak year was 2001 for the USA).
As to the "feeding the poor" concept...poor people in really poor countries can't pay farmers in this country what is needed for an economically viable farm economy - somebody else has to come up with the money. In recent years, the excess US corn/grain crop was dumped onto foreign markets, like Mexico's, resulting in tens of millions of unemployed farmers, and now worse off than when they had a farm to grow crops for the local markets. The EtOH business has raised farm crop in the USA back to viable levels, and it means we can't dump our unused corn on the world and continue to trash 3rd world rural economies in that way (but there may be other ways to trash them...). Besides, what has occurred is that the starch in the corn has been converted to EtOH and the remainder of the food value (protein, oil, fiber, minerals, viatmins, etc) still remains with the DDGS. This also means that less sugar (as corn syrup) is available to drug up the beverages that are mass consumed, and that help lead to more obeisity and diabetes, heart attack, etc.
I'm sure that the EtOH business is being overhyped, especially by truly deluded types who think that we can continue to drive around in 10 to 20 mpg vehicles fueled at $2.50/gallon (and less), living lives designed for a cheap fuel/automobile based society, with 'burbs and exurbs for almost all (middle and rich class types), and endless oil wars for those that need the money to escape from poverty in rural and urban America. Well, the cheap fuel won't happen, and also the endless fuel...but we know the Oil Wars ARE happening, especially in IraqNam, but also in Darfur. However, things can be designed so that fuel efficient vehicles can be powered largely by home-grown fuels, but those fuels will be expensive by todays standards. In the process, lots of jobs get created, and the rural economy can get a shot in the arm via higher crop prices. Anyone for a sugar free (beverage wise) America? Because that will become the choice...sugar for the cola, or for the EtOH plant that can fuel up the hydrid, Harley, PEHV and/or the tractor. So much for having it all, and at next to no cost....
deb9