The most recent signs of progress for the surge in Iraq—the parliament bombing in the Green Zone, the destruction of the Sarafiya bridge, and the Karbala blast—further serve to illustrate that there is no military solution to this clusterfuck. That a military surge of 20-30,000 troops in Baghdad would somehow help us "turn the corner" in Iraq was a stupid idea from the beginning, and now it’s being proven so.
As most reasonable people predicted, as soon as the violence fell in Baghdad, the violence shot up everywhere else:
Iraqi civilian deaths have fallen in Baghdad in the two months since the Feb. 14 start of the U.S.-led offensive, according to an Associated Press tally. Outside the capital, however, civilian deaths are up as Sunni and Shiite extremists shift their operations to avoid the crackdown.
Tal Afar. Diwaniya. Karbala. Hillah. Anbar. Kirkuk. Wait a few minutes and another city will be added.
The funny thing is, I wish there were a military solution to this mess. It would be easy that way. Unfortunately, there is no possible way to resolve the parliament bombing or any other act of terrorism—or civil unrest, for that matter—through military force. We cannot use a platoon of M1 Abrams tanks to solve the mystery and find the perpetrator. Nor can we use an artillery unit. And all the helmets, vests, protective eyewear, guns, and rudimentary Arabic skills in the world won’t help the infantry when we send them to gather the intelligence we need to find the bomber’s friends. And in our frustration, if we decide to template some suspected enemy positions on a map overlay in order to drop some mortars on them, that won’t help either—even if we do think that such a "show of force" is likely intimidate the terrorists into not bombing the parliament again.
No. This is stupid. There are a number of things that are going to end this civil war, and military force by the U.S. is not among them. Here’s how it ends:
1. All Iraqis must want the violence to end and must have the will to make it stop
Nothing further down on this list matters at all if the Iraqi people themselves don’t want the violence to end. Without a steel will on the part of the Iraqis, that country is done. Unfortunately, by remaining there, the U.S. military is worsening a deep-rooted culture of dependence.
Those on the Right point to the fact that many Iraqis want the Americans to stay—especially the Army and police forces. Well, that’s true. Many do want us to stay. But it’s because when they work with us, we help them stay alive. They were dependent on Saddam, and now they’re dependent on us. If you were a Sunni Iraqi and had to complete a mission in Sadr City, would you want an Apache gunship overhead for support? You bet your ass, you would. Iraqis want the American military to stay because they don’t believe they can handle the civil unrest alone. Well. . .they’re going to have to. That’s all there is to it. At bottom, no country’s civil war or revolution has ever been won by another country. This fact is very painful to me, because I have Iraqi friends who still live in Baghdad, and the thought of abandoning them makes me nauseous. But I also have friends in the U.S. Army who have been wounded, gone back, been wounded again, and now face 15-month long deployments. Enough has been asked of those soldiers.
2. Corruption must be stamped out of the Iraqi government and civil service
Part of having the will to end the violence means having the will to make your country a better place. That includes the end of corruption in Iraq’s government and public sector. Unfortunately, this is something that may well be impossible—since the art of being corrupt is so ingrained in public life there. No one trusts each other, and public agencies are breeding grounds for tribal militias, death squads, and religious separatists. But you know what? That’s not our problem. We can’t make Iraqis be less corrupt. We can’t make them trust each other. We can’t force them at the point of a gun or a Bradley fighting vehicle. They have to want it for themselves.
3. The Iraqi Army and police forces must be trained and competent
Okay, so let’s train them. Let’s leave a division in Iraq—say 20,000 troops. They can stay on a secured base, somewhere in rural Iraq, and train Iraqi soldiers, day and night. Let’s start an exchange program. Selected Iraqis can attend Army schools here in the U.S. Then let’s expand it. Other countries can invite Iraqis to train in their countries. Let’s make it a priority. Hell, let’s make it the priority.
The same thing goes for the police. Let’s continue using private contractors like MPRI and DynCorp to hire American ex-police officers to work alongside our own military police in Iraq training the Iraqi police force. Are contractors bad? Not necessarily. Not if they’re not allowed to carry machine guns and fly helicopters—or to leave the base or the police station to which they’re assigned. These would not be ex-military contractors, they would be ex-cops. Big difference.
Fixing the police force is fundamental to ending the violence in Iraq—through good, old-fashioned police work. Let’s go back to that parliament bombing: How does the crime get solved? Through investigation and through knowing your "beat"; through developing relationships within the community and through making arrests.
4. Al Qaeda in Iraq must be vanquished
Like the rest of the civilized world, most Iraqis hate al Qaeda. But thanks to America, they too now have to deal with these pseudo-religious, terrorist pieces of shit. Fortunately, the primary element that really fuels al Qaeda in Iraq is the American presence. Once we leave, the already withering support for al Qaeda in Iraq should dry up. Iraqis would likely turn on them very quickly—as they already have in fits and starts in the past. In order to help the fledgling Iraqi military and police force, we should provide air support for them as they root out al Qaeda terrorists.
5. U.S. forces must stop exacerbating the situation. They must pull out of the cities and/or leave altogether.
Yes, George, we’re a big part of the problem. We’re like a barb stuck in the side of Iraq. It’s going to be bloody when we pull it out, but everyone will be better off after we do. In all likelihood, we should leave the token force I mentioned earlier to train the Iraqi military. Other than that, we need to get out. I hate to be the one to break it to the President, but this 15-month deployment thing is not going over well with the Army. Just watch.
There is no realistic military solution to the quagmire in Iraq. The surge is proving itself to be a failure. It’s on the Iraqis now. We can help them, but the responsibility is now theirs.