While the media has been quick to key on Moqtada as-Sadr’s latest statement concerning his opposition to U.S. forces in Iraq, I don’t think most outlets are really recognizing the significance of this. But this is why it’s important: The last time Sadr called for open rebellion against American forces, it resulted in the deadliest month for Americans in Iraq. While Sadr hasn’t called for open rebellion yet this time, he has now told his followers—the Mahdi Army—to "unite your efforts against the enemy" in Diwaniya—where American and Iraqi forces are now trying to return control of the city to the government. At the same time, Sadr's forces are openly assembling parading around by the hundreds of thousands in Najaf.
The difference between the Mahdi Army uprising of April 2004 and now, is that the U.S. is in a far more compromised position. Depending on what Sadr decides to do in the next few days, this situation could get very bad, very quickly.
Two weeks before the first uprising in 2004, an Oxford Research International poll revealed that 51% of Iraqis opposed the U.S. occupation of Iraq, but that nearly 75% wanted U.S. forces to stay for the time being. And that was the good news—the high water mark of public opinion in Iraq. After Sadr’s violent uprising in Najaf and Sadr City that April, the favorability rating of U.S. forces in Iraq plunged to abysmally low levels. At that time, a Gallup poll showed that 75% of Baghdad residents wanted the U.S. out of Iraq "immediately," and over half of the Iraqi population supported attacks on Americans at least "sometimes."
Thus, when Sadr stirred up the Mahdi Army—even in a time when public opinion was not totally against the U.S. occupation—the results were catastrophic. U.S. forces suffered more deaths due to hostile fire in the April 2004 uprising than during November 2004—the month U.S. forces re-took Fallujah, and the second deadliest month of the war. And with the uprising came the terribly low public opinion numbers. It bears repeating: The last time Moqtada as-Sadr marshaled his militia in opposition to U.S. forces, it resulted in the deadliest month for U.S. forces during the war in Iraq. It also resulted in Iraqi views of the occupation plummeting.
Now for the bad news. In a poll released by WorldPublicOpinion.org in September 2006, the numbers had gotten worse: 6 out of 10 Iraqis supported attacks on U.S. troops. By early 2007, as we’ve seen, the violence is continuing unabated—despite what dipshits like John McCain say.
So here’s the deal: When the numbers were bad (but not really bad) for Americans in Iraq in late March 2004, Moqtada as-Sadr was able to rally his militia into inflicting the deadliest month on American forces in the war. Now that the numbers are worse, now that tensions are high due to the escalation, now that "Iraqis have turned their backs on their would-be liberators," and now that news media organizations are drawing up escape plans in case Baghdad falls, an uprising by Sadr could literally bring down the government. And remember: Sadr’s followers are Shi’a. They’re our friends—unlike the Sunni al Qaeda. If the U.S. and Iraqi governments lose their tenuous support by Sadr and his Mahdi Army, we—the U.S. and Iraqi governments—would have no friends left in Iraq. We would be on the precipice of not only being forced from the country, but of also having a full-scale Sunni-Shi’a civil war erupt.
If Sadr were to launch another "deadliest month" in April 2007, it would not be like the one in April 2004. The support for American troops in Iraq just isn’t there anymore. A similar uprising now would be far worse. While I hope Sadr’s latest decree amidst the fighting in Diwaniya doesn’t set off this powder keg, I am not so naïve as to think it couldn’t happen. Especially when this is the latest off the AP wires:
Baghdad – The powerful Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr ordered his militiamen on Sunday to redouble their battle to oust American forces and argued that
Iraq's army and police should join him in defeating "your archenemy." The U.S. military announced the weekend deaths of 10 American soldiers, including six killed on Sunday.
This does not bode well.