First a look at where we were a month ago:
Gephardt loses to Bush by 13% and 474-64 in the electoral college (Gep wins DC, HA, MA, MD, NY, RI)
Edwards loses to Bush by 13% and 452-86 in the electoral college (Edwards wins the same states as Gephardt plus CT and NJ)
Kerry loses to Bush by 11.5% and 452-86 in the electoral college (same states as Edwards)
Lieberman loses to Bush by 10% and 431-107 in the electoral college (same as Kerry but add IL)
Clark loses to Bush by 9.5% and 376-162 in the electoral college (same as Lieberman but add CA).
Dean loses to Bush by 9% and 411-127 in the electoral college (same as Lieberman but add MI and VT).
Now where we were a week ago:
Edwards trails Bush by 6.5% points and loses the electoral vote 353-185
Kerry trails Bush by 3.5% and loses the electoral vote 393-145
Lieberman trails Bush by 11.5% and 449-89 in the electoral vote
Clark trails Bush by 10% and loses the electoral vote 456-82
Dean trails Bush by 11.5% and 461-77 in the electoral vote.
Now where we are this week:
Kerry leads Bush by 4.5% points but loses the electoral vote 302-236 if I include all state polls. Kerry wins the electoral vote 309-229 if I throw out state polls that are more than one month old (Kerry wins CA, CT, DC, DE, FL, HA, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NV, NH, NJ, NY, NM, OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI if I use the formula without state polls where there are no recent state polls). FL, MI, NV, NH and OH are the states Kerry loses if I include old state polls.
Edwards trails Bush by 3.5% points and trails 345-193 in the electoral vote if I include all state polls. He loses 328-210 if I throw out old state polls (he gains Michigan that way). (Edwards wins CA, CT, DC, DE, HA, IL, ME, MD. MA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT)
Clark trails Bush by 7.5% points and trails Bush 391-147 in the electoral vote with or without using old state polls. (Clark leads in CA, CT, DC, DE, HA, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT)
Dean trails Bush by 9.5% points and trails Bush 446-92 in the electoral vote with or without old state polls. (Dean leads in the same states as Clark except CA).
Formula for arriving at electoral vote explained in my next post below.