SurveyUSA has just published the results of 2008 Giuliani vs. .... polls in ten states. What do these results tell us about the relative electability of Clinton, Obama, and Edwards?
Perhaps nothing this early in the election cycle; but if the results mean anything, then they are quite revealing and interesting. In short, Edwards is well ahead of Clinton, and Obama does very poorly. Overall, Edwards beats Giuliani soundly in the ten states polled, losing only New York and New Mexico, while tying Rudy in Virginia. Clinton wins by a smaller margin. Obama is badly beaten by Giuliani.
The more important question than how the candidates do in these ten states is what this implies about how they would do nationwide in 2008. You'll have to do your own electoral vote prognosticating, but my wild-ass guessing extrapolating from these results shows Edwards almost comfortably ahead of Giuliani, winning the presidency with at least 300 electoral votes. The Clinton vs. Giuliani race I find too close to call, while Obama loses in a blow-out.
Do I think these polling results and prognostications are unassailable? No. But I do think they offer us pause to reconsider the current conventional wisdom.