[Originally posted on my blog, Senate 20008 Guru: Following the Races.]
Congressman Tom Allen is now an announced candidate for U.S. Senate, and Maine is indeed lucky. Tom Allen will beat Susan Collins for reasons including, but not limited to:
- Susan Collins promised the voters of Maine she would only serve two terms. Collins lied to the voters of Maine.
- Susan Collins has a Presidential Support Score of about 80%. Bush has an approval in Maine of around 33%. Bush will drag Collins down.
(See reasons 3 through 7 below the fold.)
- A majority of voters want to bring the troops home. Not Susan Collins. Iraq will drag Collins down.
- The conditions that led to the Walter Reed scandal occurred while Susan Collins was Chair of the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. Collins provided no oversight or leadership in defense of our veterans' health.
- Susan Collins claims to be pro-choice, but she supported the nominations of both John Roberts and Sam Alito to the Supreme Court, which has since resulted in an erosion of a woman's right to choose.
- 2008 should be another Democratic-leaning year, with more voters trusting the Democratic Congress over Bush on most issues and polls indicating that voters currently lean toward a generic Democrat over a generic Republican. Further, Maine goes blue in Presidential years, which should also help Allen over Collins.
- The DSCC will be able to support Tom Allen more significantly than the NRSC will be able to support Susan Collins.
Of course, Susan Collins as the incumbent will start out with a very healthy lead in the polls. Most voters are not paying attention to the race yet and Tom Allen is only beginning his formal campaign. But once voters begin to see a strong alternative to Susan Collins' duplicity and the Bush-Collins Iraq policy, expect Allen to come on strong.