Thursday, Jon Bruning announced that he is officially challenging Chuck Hagel for the Republican nomination for Senate. Bruning took care to characterize it as a primary challenge to Hagel, a risky move if Hagel decides not to run for reelection.
We talked a lot on Thursday and Friday here about the similarities between this race and the CT-Sen primary in 2006. Which, of course, brings us to the question: what happens if Hagel loses?
I've talked a lot about how similar this race is to (a bizarro-world version of) Lieberman-Lamont, now I want to explain why it's different.
"Nebraska For Hagel" can't happen. If Hagel runs for Senate, he will do it as a Republican. If he loses the primary, he cannot run in the general.
Nebraska Democratic insiders are not big fans of Chuck Hagel. It's highly doubtful that Hagel will receive any institutional backing from Nebraska Democrats in the same way Lieberman did from Connecticut Republicans.
The key for us is to avoid our Alan Schlesinger. In 2002, Charlie Matulka only got 14% of the vote against Hagel, as he spent the entire campaign talking about Hagel's ES&S connections - and nothing else.
Essentially, in 2002, Nebraska Democrats decided to throw in the towel. There was not one credible candidate fielded for any state or federal office that year. It was a disaster of epic proportions for the state party, one that they are still trying to recover from. That year, Jon Bruning defeated Mike Meister to become Attorney General. It wasn't a close race at all, but it's telling that Meister received more votes than any other Democrat in Nebraska that year. In 2006, no one challenged Bruning.
It's why I've said, time and time again, that this race is the most important race in Nebraska this cycle. If we can't fight this one - if we allow Jon Bruning to be the next Senator from Nebraska, or allow Chuck Hagel to become our de facto nominee - we might as well fold our tents up and leave the state.
So who's our game-changer? Three names come up often, in varying degrees and in various places. They are the three Democrats in Nebraska who could run credible statewide campaigns and win. And they are true-blue Democrats.
Mike Fahey, Mayor of Omaha. Fahey has been a favorite of Democratic insiders in Nebraska to run for this seat for a few years. Outside of Ben Nelson, he's the most prominent Democratic elected official in the state. Nelson, Schumer, and Reid have all approached Fahey about running for Senate. Fahey has stated that he will "seriously consider" a run if Hagel does not run for reelection. However, Fahey's been ramping up his fundraising for a reelection campaign in 2009, fueling rumors that he's not that interested in running for Senate. The drawbacks to Fahey? He's managed to alienate a lot of folks by being a pro-expansion mayor of Omaha. There's no telling what the high-profile annexation fight between Omaha and Elkhorn would do to Fahey's chances statewide.
Bob Kerrey, Former Governor and U.S. Senator. He'll be the keynote speaker at the Nebraska Democratic Party's Morrison-Exon Dinner in two weeks. He's won three statewide elections, which immediately makes him a formidable candidate. Not to mention, he's got 12 years experience as a Senator. Against a political lightweight like Jon Bruning, I like Kerrey's chances. The drawbacks? Kerrey's spent the last six years as President of The New School in New York City. Kerrey has said there's only about a 1% chance that he'll run if Hagel decides not to seek reelection.
Scott Kleeb, 2006 Congressional Nominee (NE-03). He's the future. The netroots love him. He's young, and has a great message for Nebraska. But he seems more interested in going up against the embarrassment known as Adrian Smith again in 2008. This is better for the party and the state - Kleeb's the only Democrat who has a chance of beating Smith. He's young enough that there will be a Senate seat to run for in the future if he wants it. Kleeb hasn't made any statements about his intentions for 2008 - only that he will run for office again someday.