I grew up in a small town in west Texas, a very conservative part of the country where pretty much everyone believes in guns, God and limited government. And as you might expect, my Dad is one of the most conservative people you would ever meet. He's a true product of his environment: hard working, hard drinking and no nonsense. At age 76, he still gets up at 3:00 a.m. every day and puts in a twelve hour day selling oil field equipment. He's a life-long Republican.
But like a lot of folks in this country who once supported George Bush and have long considered themselves Republicans, he is appalled at what this administration has done. Appalled by the senseless and endless war in Iraq, by the mushrooming trillion dollar deficits, by the pillaging of the treasury by Halliburton and their ilk, by the decimation of personal freedoms by the "unitary executive." In short, my Dad is just the sort of voter that the Democrats ought to be attracting in 2008. But we're not. We are losing these voters. Follow me below the fold to find out why.
I had a long conversation with Dad over Father's Day weekend about the state of the country and the horror show that is the current administration. He knows how upset I have become by it, and it's alarming to him because he knows I stay informed and he respects my opinion, even when we disagree. We talked about the war in Iraq, about the loss of habeas corpus, about spying, about deficits, about the breaking of the military, the loss of allies, and many other ways that BushCo has failed the country.
I am pleased to say that Dad gets it. He is disgusted with Bush and wants him gone. He said, "I wouldn't vote for George Bush for dog catcher." He is ready for a change, ready for the country to change direction. Ready for someone besides the fat cats and super-rich to be part of the equation. In other words, you would think he'd be ripe to consider voting for a Democrat for president.
But when we started talking about who he might vote for, the whole tone of the conversation changed. And two themes emerged that I think highlight serious challenges for the Democratic party going into the 2008 elections.
Dad kept repeating this line: "why do you think the Democrats would be any different?" What, he asked, made me think they could or were inclined to change anything? I talked some about Edwards and Obama, and how I think they really do want to fix the problems Bush has created. Dad had heard of them, but knew nothing of their positions. But he kept coming back to "the Democrats are just like the Republicans." And that's where the failure of Congress to show any leadership is killing us.
The average voter, the independent and the swing-vote Republican, is looking at the Democratic party and their failure to do anything meaningful to end the war or rein in Bush's abuses and they see business as usual. More of the same. Politicians beholden to big money, just like the Republicans. No guts. No leadership. And they are quickly coming to realize that the Democrats offer no change for the better. We are losing these voters, right now, because the Dems refuse to act in a courageous way to change the course of the country.
The other problem Dad raised is Hilary. He simply hates her. He will never vote for Hilary. Even though he does not want to continue Bush's policies, even though he has no idea who any of the Republican candidates even are or what they stand for, he will go to the polls and vote against Hilary. It's not rational. But it is fixed in stone, and nothing is going to change his opinion of her.
I have my problems with Hilary, but I will support her if she's the nominee. But I think she will be deadly to our chances of winning the election because of her incredible negatives and the way she will motivate not just the Republican base but moderates and independents to vote against her.
If the Dems go into 2008 with a do-nothing Congress and Hilary as our nominee, I fear the party's election prospects will be very dim indeed.