For the first time in years, Milwaukee Brewer fans here in Beer City are whetting their appetite for post-season baseball. The Brewers have had an up-and-down season. They shot out to a 24-10 start out of the gate, surprising even the most optimistic of local fans. The Brewers then skidded all the way to 33-29, somehow holding first place due to the fact that the entire NL Central Division was slumping during that stretch. Since then, the Brewers have regained the spring in their step, pushing back to 10 games over .500 at 41-31, and holding a 7 1/2 game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Brewers haven't even had a winning season (they were 81-81 in 2005) since 1992. Can they hold on and secure their first division title and post-season berth since 1982? There would be a symmetry to this, of course. It was in 1957 that the Milwaukee Braves won their first pennant in the Midwest and took out the hated Yankees in 7 games to win it all. Then, 25 years later, the Brewers won the pennant, finally succombing to the St. Louis Cardinals in 7 tough games in the Fall Classic. Now, here we are, 25 years later, celebrating the 50th and 25th anniversaries of those prior mentioned clubs here in Milwaukee. Can the Brewers pull it off? I don't know the answer to that, but I do know that Sherlock Holmes once said, "...when you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."
The plain fact is that it is darned near impossible for any of the five other clubs in the division to win it, for a variety of reasons. Begin with the St. Louis Cardinals, who have a significantly watered-down starting pitching staff of slumping veterans, converted relievers and green-as-grass kids. Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder are already on the shelf, Kip Wells has blown up at 3-11, and converted reliever Braden Looper is on the DL as well. While Albert Pujols is still a force to be reckoned with, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds have diminished in stature as power hitters, leaving the Cards with a void in that area as well.
The Chicago Cubs have a terrific roster, have outscored their opponents in total during the season, and have a fairly solid starting rotation and lineup. So what is their Achilles' heel? They do not play good team baseball. They are inconsistent, always seeming to find new, ridiculous ways to lose. One time the potential tying runner was picked off 2nd base after oversliding the bag....on ball four. Just recently, they lost a game to the miserable Texas Rangers when their 3rd baseman made an error with the bases loaded because he "had a vega-vasal episode, which caused the vision in his left eye to become blurry." They have had fights in the dugout...and in the clubhouse. They have a record of something like 5-15 in 1-run games. Put it this way: the Cubs have a lot of bad karma to overcome to win this division, and I don't see it happening.
Then there are the Houston Astros, who have overcome disastrous starts in 2004 and 2005 to claim wild card berths in each of those seasons, actually advancing to the World Series in 2005. This time, there will be no recovery. They do not have Pettitte and Clemens to lean on. Lance Berkman has lost something with his swing - he is on pace for something like 30 extra base hits for the season. Shortstop Adam Everett just went on the DL and will be out 4-6 weeks with a broken bone. The Astros just do not have the horses this year to overcome their deficiencies.
I will not go into detail as to why the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds will fail to win the division. I don't think they will even be in contention. The Reds have played very badly, and may be looking to trade Griffey Jr. and/or Adam Dunn for some young pitching. The Pirates just don't have the payroll to have a roster of any depth behind Jason Bay, who is an outstanding young player.
The Brewers, then, have a 7 1/2 game lead, and a good, young, deep, motivated roster. It might pay for some of the other leading NL clubs (Mets, Phillies, Braves, Padres, Dodgers, D'Backs) to start paying attention to Milwaukee as a potential playoff opponent.
(In the interest of full disclosure, wildcat6 lives near Milwaukee but is a long-time, long-suffering Chicago Cubs fan.)