The pending arrival of The Thompster*Fred Thompson could have major implications for Democratic prospects in the 2008 Presidential Race. The first indications of his expected entry have sparked a familiar response in a familiar corner. This suggests that the Republican coalition with the evangelicals may be unwinding with unpredictable consequences. Old politicians know that when wallowing with the pigs the splash of mud is always indiscriminate.
The Republican-Evangelical Pact
It is well known that by the early '90s the Republican party had made a pact with the evangelical Christian right. The historical origins of this alliance go back to the late 1970s with the foundation of the Moral Majority. In exchange for votes the Republican party would back evangelical moral issues such as an opposition to abortion, stem cell research, gay marriage, etc, while the evangelicals would vote Republican in large numbers. The party forged an alliance with politicized evangelicals represented by Jerry Falwell, James Dobson and Pat Robertson among others.
Since self described evangelicals are about 23 percent of the electorate, 27.1 million of 118 million voters in 2004, this alliance became arguably the most important strategic political realignment since African Americans abandoned the GOP over the issue of civil rights. From 2000 to 2004 the number of evangelical voters increased by 80%. The rise of the evangelical vote and its adherence to the Republican party was far and away the biggest single strategic political event of the late 20th and early 21st centuries. It was also a contributing factor in the break down of the New Deal Coalition. The alliance helped to shatter Democratic control of the Senate and topple the 46 year Democratic reign over the House.
Now look at some numbers. In 2002 68% of all evangelicals voted for Republican congressional candidates. In 2004 65% of them voted Republican. In 2006 the figure was 61%. That drop of 7%, along with other factors, was enough to flip control of the House and Senate to the Democrats.
Seasoned political hands know that all that glitters is not gold. Just ask Victor Gold himself. This former Barry Goldwater adherent appropriately titles his latest book Invasion of the Party Snatchers: How the Holy-Rollers and the Neo-Cons Destroyed the GOP. The Republican-Evangelical alliance now threatens to consume the Republican party itself. Further, the Alliance itself may be on the brink of collapse. The collateral damage could spread far and wide with results unpredictable to both Republicans and Democrats.
This is where things start to get real interesting. Anything that hives off evangelicals from the Republican vote greatly increases the chance of Democrats in the 2008 election. The latest 2008 projections indicate that the evangelical vote is dividing with Giuliani getting 27% while McCain garners 25%. But that was before The Dobster weighed in.
Trouble in Paradise
On the 16th of May, 2007 The Dobster James Dobson, now the most visible evangelical since the death of Jerry Falwell, issued his now famous "The jig is up" Fatwa lashing a political curse on Rudi Giuliani. Dobson added that he would sit out the election before he would vote for Giuliani. Thirteen days later he laid a hair shirt on the McCain campaign with a his "no way" Fatwa on the 29th of May. As for The Thompster, Dobson earlier had smitten him with his I don't think he's a Christian moniker while demanding that he express his faith forthwith. A spokesman for the Thompson campaign promptly complied by announcing that he"was baptized into the Church of Christ".
And least you think that being a Christian and a family person is enough, remember that The Dobster doesn't do Mormons either. "Matinee Mitt" has been put on notice that his religion is a "serious obstacle".
If this has you a bit confused keep in mind that Dobson has a very peculiar view of who is and who is not a Christian. Focus on the Family spokesman Gary Schneeberger explained that "We use that word—Christian—to refer to people who are evangelical Christians." Matinee Mitt's Mormonism and Thompson's Church of Christ faith just don't cut it. Giuliani and "No Way" McCain simply don't pack the gear for the long march.
If "the jig is up" for Giuliani, if its "no way" on McCain, if Matinee Mitt has an "obstacle", and if Thompson is "no Christian", one might think that the GOP is in a worrysome state.
On one level you would be misinformed. Recently we have learned that "Hot Tub" Tom Delay has been called in as the Calvary Cavalry to save the wagon train. "God has spoken to me" said the indicted former king of the 10 martini hot tub set. "I listen to God, and what I’ve heard is that I’m supposed to devote myself to rebuilding the conservative base of the Republican Party..." Nothing like having The Exterminator along for a Crusade to rescue the faithful.
While The Hammer confessed in his No Retreat No Surrender memoir to earning the nickname "Hot Tub" because of his propensity to consume 10-12 martinis back in his fornicacious days when he had "pushed God from his throne", he has since come to Christ and confessed all. Nor is he the only one who knows a thing or two about fornication and confession. The Newtster Newt Gingrich has been around that track a time or two himself, the latest right in the middle of the proceedings when Clinton was impeached for cavorting on the floor of the Oval Office with a little female help. Newt also confessed, but its where he confessed that's getting all the attention.
On another level Newtster's confession indicates a profound malaise in the GOP nation. Its the setting that's the show stopper for Newt's confession. Gingrich confessed his fornicacious ways directly to The Dobster. Of all the places to confess surely this is the one most pregnant with possibilities. The setting for this confession underscores in bold the dilemma of the Republican party. While The Netwster didn't crawl on his hands and feet in the snow like Henry IV at Canossa, (there was no snow during the confession) the spectacle of a Republican presidential candidate confessing on James Dobson's radio show is enough to set a new gold standard for cynicism among many non-evangelicals. Further, it may be sufficient to drive some moderates to queue up for exit visas to depart the Republican Party. Keep in mind that both Newtster and Henry IV had the subject of Investiture on their mind at the time of their confession.
This political theater no doubt contributed to Dobson declaring The Newtster as "the most articulate politician on the scene today". But The Dobster misses the point. The issue isn't articulative skill; the issue is an obsequeniousness that isn't going to play well elsewhere. All of this adds to a spreading concern that the Republican Pary has morphed into the nation's first religious party.
"Mark my word, if and when these preachers get control of the (Republican) party, and they are sure trying to do so, it's going to be a terrible damn problem. Frankly, these people frighten me. Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they cannot and will not compromise. I know, I've tried to deal with them." — Barry Goldwater
Fallout
And now we come to the Dies Irae of this sordid tale of Fatwas and fornication, of sin and confession, of investiture and contrition. The top 4 Republican candidates are unacceptable to Dobson and many evangelicals. If any of these candidates win the Republican nomination a significant percentage of the evangelical base may decide to sit out the election. Remember, only a 7% drop in evangelical support in the 2006 Congressional elections was enough to tip the election Democratic. The threat this time is that the percentage may exceed 7%. This would constitute The Revolt of the Evangelicals.
Threats of mass disillusionment among the evangelicals may just prompt the entry of The Newtser into the race, especially if Thompson fails to gain significant traction. His calculus may be that he alone could hold the evangelical base, he alone could prevent their mass exodus that surely would bring the barbarians inside the gate. Perhaps Newt feels he alone could prevent a Revolt of the Evangelicals.
But Gingrinch comes with heavy political baggage. In March, 2007 53% of the respondents indicated in a Zogby poll they would never vote for him. However, 46% of those polled (including 42% of moderates) have a similar aversion to voting for Hillary Clinton.
The real question is how big will the ABH (Anybody But Hillary) vote be with Giuliani, McCain, Romney, Thompson, and Gingrich? Will it offset a Revolt of the Evangelicals, and if so, which candidate benefits the most? Giuliani, McCain, Romney and Thompson may fracture the evangelicals; Newt may drive so many moderates out of the GOP that the effect would be the same as a Revolt of the Evangelicals.
This equation is so complex that we may well see a 3rd party candidate arise out of the Republican non-evangelical center right. Michael Bloomberg is reportedly poised to spend one billion dollars of his own money on a 3rd party run. Note that this is "billion" spelled with a "b". This astounding event has prompted Federal Election Commission Chairman Michael Toner to comment that "Bloomberg is H. Ross Perot on steroids. He could turn the political landscape of this election upside down..." Further, Bloomberg has discussed the matter with Al From of the Democratic Leadership Council. Were he to repeat his New York City experience Bloomberg would capture the majority of the Jewish vote, a solid Democratic constituency. Needless to say, this is one of your basic, standard issue Democratic nightmares.
Three Scenarios
A Bloomberg entry into the 2008 presidential race opens the door for 3 possible scenarios, all of them interesting. In a 3 way race with Hillary Clinton the Democratic nominee the ABH Factor may help set the table for a rerun similar to the Election of 1912. Fermentation in the Republican Party in 1912 prompted the birth of a 3rd political party. Theodore Roosevelt's Bull Moose Party caused the collapse of the Republican ascendancy and handed the election of 1912 to the Democrat Woodrow Wilson. In a similar 2008 contest the Republican nominee would likely come in 3rd, but with the ABH Factor, the Jewish vote and a Revolt of the Evangelicals, Bloomberg might win the presidency outright. This becomes more likely if there is tepid support for Hillary on the left should she waffle on Iraq after securing the nomination.
There's another possibility here as well. The 2008 election could prove something of a rerun similar to the Election of 1932, which cyrstallized a general realignment of national politics for a generation. In this scenario the Republicans implode under the crushing weight scandal, Iraq, immigration and a Revolt of the Evangelicals.
However, it could be much bigger. 2008 could be the year of the perfect storm when the forces of Iraq, immigration, Evangelical Revolt and scandal all converge into a single election. 2008 could be a set up for a future Year of the Whig for the GOP. Caught between the Scylla and Charybdis of Iraq and Immigration with Evangelical Revolt and scandal thrown in for good measure, the 2008 election might appear as a whopping combo of 1856 in which the Whig Party disintegrated, 1912 that resulted in a serious 3rd party, and 1932 which saw politial realignment on a national scale. In the fallout from that explosion moderate remnants of the GOP, ABH and independent voters may coalesce around a 3rd party while the evangelicals run off in the night with the rump of the GOP. Hillary may be left presiding over...well, over what's left when a major party thumbs its constiuents on major issues such as Iraq and immigration.
Whatever happens, the dissolution of Republican pact made with the evangelicals threatens to unleash unpredictable consequences on both the Republican and Democratic parties.
"I'm frankly sick and tired of the political preachers across this country telling me as a citizen that if I want to be a moral person, I must believe in "A," "B," "C" and "D." Just who do they think they are? And from where do they presume to claim the right to dictate their moral beliefs to me?" — Barry Goldwater
*Ed Schultz appears to have coined the term Newtser and I have borrowed the style from him. Schultz has one of the best progressive talk shows in the country.