IS THIS RACE OVER - a lot pf people have wondered this. As the table below shows, not if history is any guide. Every Democratic race since 1976 with the exception of 2000 has turned at least once,
and often twice.
Year |
Event |
Outcome |
Front runner |
Impact on race |
2000 |
2000 |
Iowa |
Gore |
Gore |
Big win makes NH must win for
Bradley |
2000 |
NH |
Gore |
Gore |
Gore wins narrowly, but its still game over as Bradley's close finish is overshadowed by GOP McCain win |
1992 |
Iowa was conceeded to Harkin and not contested |
1992 |
NH |
Tsongas |
Clinton/Tsongas |
Books have been written over this primary alone. Clinton's second saves him. |
1992 |
"Little Tuesday" |
Tsongas wins most, Clinton wins GA, Brown wins Col. |
Tsongas/Clinton |
Clinton wins saves campaign, give mo into super Tuesday where he blows out to big delegate lead. Tsongas misses opportunity, does not realize how much trouble Clinton was in. |
1992 |
Super-Tuesday |
Clinton wins all of south |
Clinton |
Clinton builds huge lead in delegates and take mo into Ill which he wins. |
IS THIS RACE OVER - a lot pf people have wondered this. As the table below shows, not if history
is any guide. Every Democratic race since 1976 with the exception of 2000 has turned at least once,
and often twice.
Year |
Event |
Outcome |
Front runner |
Impact on race |
2000 |
2000 |
Iowa |
Gore |
Gore |
Big win makes NH must win for
Bradley |
2000 |
NH |
Gore |
Gore |
Gore wins narrowly, but its still game over as Bradley's close finish is overshadowed by GOP McCain win |
1992 |
Iowa was conceeded to Harkin and not contested |
1992 |
NH |
Tsongas |
Clinton/Tsongas |
Books have been written over this primary alone. Clinton's second saves him. |
1992 |
"Little Tuesday" |
Tsongas wins most, Clinton wins GA, Brown wins Col. |
Tsongas/Clinton |
Clinton wins saves campaign, give mo into super Tuesday where he blows out to big delegate lead. Tsongas misses opportunity, does not realize how much trouble Clinton was in. |
1992 |
Super-Tuesday |
Clinton wins all of south |
Clinton |
Clinton builds huge lead in delegates and take mo into Ill which he wins. |
1988 |
1988 |
Iowa |
Geppy wins |
Gepp/Dukakus |
Gepp takes some mo into NH, Duke 3rd place finish gives some mo as well |
1988 |
NH |
Dukakus |
Dukakus/Gepp |
Good win for Duke, good second for Gepp: they come out of NH about even |
1988 |
Super Tuesday |
Dukakus wins MA, Gore wins most of South |
Dukakus/Gore |
Jackson and Gore split most of the southern delegates. Two way southern race allows Duke to win surprising number of Delegates in the south. Gore's late surge destroys Geppy who drops out. |
1988 |
Ill |
Dukakus |
Dukakus |
Gore doesn't break 5, leaving only Jackson to fight against Duke after NY primary. Duke wins primary after primary over Jackson by differing margins. |
1984 |
1984 |
Iowa |
Mondale wins |
Mondale |
Mondales wins by 30. Harts narrow second gives him mo. |
1984 |
NH |
Hart |
Hart/Mondale |
Huge upset, Hart goes on to win large number of states, Mondale runs out of money (ahem Joe trippi - you were for Mondale, didn;t you remember this/) |
1984 |
9 States |
9 States: Hart 7, Mondale 2 |
Hart/Mondale |
Close to dropping out, Mondale rallies to win Ga and ALA to save campaign. Mondale wins spin game, as many Hart wins were on the West Coast, and too late to be factored in evening coverage. |
1984 |
Ill |
Mondale |
Mondale |
Leading by 10, Hart pulls ad, causing him to lose. Modale becomes front runner, wins NY and Penn by large margins. |
1984 |
Ohio/Ind |
Hart |
Mondale |
Momentum turns completely. Hart wins Ca and NJ, but is too far behind. |
1980 |
1980 |
Iowa |
Carter wins |
Carter |
Carter badly beats Kennedy. Kennedy is realing from a series of Gaffs. |
1980 |
NH |
Carter wins |
Carter |
Carter staggers Kennedy, wins most of southern primaries and Ill. Builds large delegate lead. |
1980 |
NY |
Kennedy wins |
Carter |
Incredible upset not foreseen. Kennedy wins a string of primaries including Penn and CA. He is too far behind to get the nomination, but badly hurts Carter going into the general election |
1976 |
1976 |
Iowa |
Carter wins |
None |
Unknown Gov Carter takes momentum into NH, many better known candidates skip event |
1976 |
NH |
Carter wins |
Carter |
Carter rides momentum into Florida, where he crushes Wallace. Continues winning primaries, building large delegate lead |
1976 |
Stop Carter movement emerges. Carter makes "ethnic purity" remark. |
Brown and Church enter race. |
Carter |
Carter wins delegates, but Brown wins repeatedly |
1976 |
June 6: Calif, Ohio, NJ |
Carter loses CA to Brown, to undecided in NJ, wins Ohio |
Carter. |
Carter takes enough delegates from Ca. to clinch nominatio by a nose |