When I was in college, looking for a parking space on campus, I spotted one in an adjacent aisle. But I was fairly certain if I tried to drive around to that aisle, somebody else would get there first. But it was possible to drive over the edge of a curbed planter box directly into the parking space.
Which I tried, but midway my tires slipped off the curb and my car slid into the bumper of an adjacent car. There I was, with a dent in my passenger door from the corner of that car’s bumper. The question was, what do I do next? If I drive forward the bumper continues to crease the entire length of my car. If I drive backward, same result. And then someone drove into the parking space I was after.
The answer that was apparent to me at the time, is that I should not have driven over the planter box in the first place. I should have anticipated the consequence I found myself in. There was no way to undo that, and no good choices once I’d done it. It represented to me a learning experience: consider the consequences before you do something stupid, and then accept the consequences if you do something stupid.
It occurred to me the U.S. is in the same predicament in Iraq. Except the President is in denial, ignoring our circumstance, claiming we should drive forward, increasing our military losses, but the place we were after is gone anyway. The real point that nearly everyone should agree to is that there is no way to undo the predicament we’re in, and we must then accept the consequences of doing something stupid.
There is no question it was stupid. The President’s father wrote a book about why it was stupid back when people criticized him for not invading Iraq. The obvious point is that we are back in my planter box situation. No good choices.
Pulling out of Iraq is a bad idea. It will increase the perception that the U.S. can be intimidated into backing down from military commitments. And it will leave Iraq to possible chaos that can be exploited by both Iran and Al Qaeda.
Staying in Iraq is a bad idea. It will increase the ability of Jihadist extremists to portray the U.S. as an evil empire and recruit forces to attack us. And it will prevent us from offering a credible threat in other places such as Pakistan, Korea, and Iran when we are bogged down in Iraq.
The reality is that the true war against terrorism has nothing to do with Iraq. Suppose we DO leave and Iraq explodes into turmoil? Iran moves to occupy or control Shiite eastern Iraq. Syria and Saudi Arabia fortify western Sunni Iraq, while Turkey engages the Kurds in the north. Al Qaeda would be out of luck, because nobody wants them there. They weren’t there before we invaded, they won’t be there afterward. They are gum on our shoes. If anything, allowing Sunni Saudi Arabia to establish order in western Iraq after we leave would both counter Syria and Iran.
The reality is that the true terrorist threat lies with the instability of Pakistan. The existence of U.S. troops in Iraq perpetuates the Great Satan myth among the Muslim populace worldwide, and Pakistan’s leader Musharraf has become a disciple of Satan by association. As long as U.S. troops are in Iraq, the substance of the Great Satan myth appears real, and the threat to Musharraf is real. And the real Al Qaeda is already entrenched in Pakistan gaining credence.
If Iraq collapses into turmoil, there will be conventional chaos and car bombs exploding, like now. But if Pakistan collapses into turmoil, there are nuclear weapons sitting amid the chaos. India could hardly risk those weapons being hijacked by extremists. The U.S. could hardly risk those weapons being hijacked by extremists. We are thus, today, very much like Europe prior to World War One, waiting for someone to assassinate Musharraf, like Archduke Ferdinand, that precipitates a monstrous regional war nobody wants but cannot avoid.
In essence, we have already driven up on this planter box in Pakistan, we just haven’t slipped off yet. But we don’t get to decide if our tires slip or not. They just do because of Murphy’s law. We could stay in Iraq, the surge could even work well enough, the turmoil could reduce to a slow boil, but we would still be the Great Satan, occupying an Islamic country instead of empowering it. As long as we are on that planter box, the tires will eventually slip off.
Then the reality in Pakistan becomes another circumstance with no good choices. The recognition will become readily apparent that we should not have allowed the circumstances to occur in the first place. If there is one place in the mideast where we absolutely need to assist in establishing democracy, it should be Pakistan. Nuclear weapons need to be supervised by more than just a military junta dangling like some sword of Damocles over the region.
So the real question in Iraq is whether, after we pull out, we can influence events in Pakistan, knowing we cannot if we stay. It is becoming increasingly apparent that after a few more months in Iraq, the U.S. military will be hard pressed to even be able to invade Grenada again. The military needs time to restock, rearm, and rejuvenate its capabilities. Unless we back off that planter box and get the car fixed, we are in mortal danger.
We live in a world where the prosperity of India is burgeoning, the productive resources of China are opening up. Those two countries alone have over two BILLION people combined, grappling to leave feudal poverty and emerge into a modern quality of life. But an explosion of war because of the collapse of Pakistan and the free-for-all over its nuclear weapons will drag India back into poverty. The turmoil in India could easily affect China, it will certainly affect the Muslim countries of southeast Asia. A depression like post-WWI would be likely.
The Democrats in Congress need to do more than quibble with the President over Iraq. They need to ride to the rescue of the United States military and the peace and prosperity of the entire world. Pulling out of Iraq would be much like our pulling out of Panama: it undermines the image of the U.S. as an imperialist power and gives credence to our allies who support democracy. South America began to quickly change from dictators to democracy once we pulled out of Panama, and something similar could occur in the middle east when we pull out of Iraq.
We just have to recognize that it was stupid to drive over that planter box in the first place and quit worrying about the damage that will occur trying to get out, when the damage that is almost certain to occur if we stay looms much larger. Much larger.