For the sake of analysis, this diary will presume, based on today’s news report, that Michigan will vote on Tuesday, January 15 – one week after New Hampshire.
Regardless of where Iowa and Nevada shoehorn themselves into the process, this move would make Michigan more important than either.
The biggest consequence: the early primaries just became many times more expensive, to the tune of millions of dollars.
It also gives four important "wild card" groups of voters an early place in line:
- Independent voters
- Union members.
- Black Americans
- University students
Each of the leading Democratic candidates – Clinton, Obama and Edwards – have few unique advantages over each other in Michigan and each face many uncertainties.
A look at the voting history in Democratic presidential caucuses from 1984 to 2004 provides some clues as to what could happen, but keep in mind that this will be a primary, and that even Michigan political operatives will be on unfamiliar terrain because of it.
Still, Michigan may now determine how South Carolina, California and other big states go after it.
More at the jump…
In the 2004 caucuses, more than 160,000 voters participated in the Democratic presidential race (results below).
But this will be Michigan’s first Democratic presidential primary in decades, which means a secret ballot (lessening the power of party officials and union leaders compared to what they've had in the caucuses) and will likely bring much higher turnout.
Current Endorsements
Of Michigan’s 15 US House members and two US Senators, only two have made endorsements so far:
Rep. John Conyers endorses Obama.
Rep. Bart Stupak endorses Edwards.
Two other prominent Michigan names have endorsed:
Michigan-born Magic Johnson endorses Clinton.
Edwards also has his campaign manager, former Rep. David Bonior, from Michigan.
No union endorsements yet in Michigan. Marc Ambinder thinks that Edwards has the inside track:
Edwards's rivals expect him to be endorsed by several other industrial unions as well, including the United Auto Workers, which is otherwise occupied with contract negotiations this month. A UAW sanction would help Edwards in Michigan, which might hold a presidential nominating caucus in January of 2008.
Still, Edwards could be a moot point by January 15, if Iowa loses importance, or he loses the state, and then does not break through in New Hampshire. Even still, he'll be scrambling to compete on the air with better funded Obama and Clinton in expensive Michigan.
Other than that spattering of events or possible events, all the candidates now must sprint to the Michigan finish line in less than five months, starting from scratch in terms of organization and message.
Polls
Folks here seem to like polls a lot. For what it's worth, here are the disparate numbers out there, with links for everyone to make their own cherry pie of 'em.
The most recent poll, from The Detroit News, in August, has Clinton up by 19.
Clinton: 45
Obama: 26
Edwards: 16
But as an indication of the softness of each candidate’s support, it also has numbers including former Vice President Gore in the mix, with Gore in the lead, taking 13 points away from Clinton (about 28 percent of “her” votes), 10 away from Obama (about 38 percent of “his” votes) and 8 from Edwards (50 percent of “his” votes):
Gore: 36
Clinton: 32
Obama: 16
Edwards: 8
The swathe that Gore cuts through all three candidates' polling numbers in Michigan underscores what the observant have been saying all along: the numbers are soft where the campaigns have not yet tread.
Two polling organizations that have done more than one survey in Michigan – EPIC-MRI
and Strategic Vision – show no movement outside of the “margin of error” between their March 2008 and July-August 2008 polls. However, they disagree with each other. EPIC-MRI has shown Clinton consistently up 16 to 19 points over Obama over those months, while Strategic Vision has shown Obama consistently within 5 to 7 points of Clinton over those months. The difference? Pollsters’ senses of who “likely” voters will be.
CAVEAT EMPTOR: When all these polls were taken, there was still a presumption that Michigan would hold a caucus and not a primary, but we do not know how that impacted the pollsters’ methodology. None of these pollsters have offered publicly available cross-tabs as to black voters’ preferences, nor those of union households, nor projections as to what percent of the turnout will be from black voters or union households.
ARG is alone among the pollsters showing a shift beyond the margin of error:, In May, ARG had Clinton up by 13, in February up by 5 and in January tied. (ARG is also the polling organization that has Obama leading South Carolina, an Obama-Clinton tie in New Hampshire and a three-way virtual tie between Edwards, Obama and Clinton in Iowa: Cherry pick away! I'm personally looking forward to the argument that ARG has no credibility in those states but divine seer powers in Michigan!)
You can try cherry-picking the polls in favor of your own candidate anyway. Here is the Real Clear Politics list of all polls this year from Michigan.
Now, onto some numbers that mean a lot more regarding Michigan...
The Money Primary
If Michigan does go forward for January 15, each of the candidates has less than five months to:
- Put a top field organization in place.
- Raise millions more than they thought they would need in January for advertising, polling, direct mail, etcetera.
Toto, I’ve got a feeling we’re not in, um, Iowa anymore.
It is going to be friggin’ expensive for anyone that authentically competes in Michigan. Fundraising just became even more desperately important.
Detroit is the 11th largest television market and the 10th largest radio market in the country, covering 9 counties in all. By "largest" you can also deduce: more expensive. Major television networks have stations in 11 separate media markets broadcasting in or to Michigan voters: Grand Rapids-Battle Creek-Kalamazoo (39th largest in the nation) covers 14 counties, Flint-Saginaw (66th largest in the nation) covers 13 counties. Look at the map to see the rest.
The Q3 fundraising period, ending October 1, with filings made public on October 15, will in fact be the pre-primary for Michigan. It will reveal who can play, who cannot, and also who can play but at the cost of emptying the campaign coffers just three weeks before the February 5 Super Tuesday contests from California to New York island.
I have a feeling that some of the folks that have derided Iowa's importance in the process are soon going to start to feel differently when the early primaries now become "pay to play."
Michigan Caucus History
If you are Clinton, you probably want 1984 or 1992 to be your model. Here’s how Michigan caucused in those years, coalescing behind the establishment candidate:
1984:
Walter Mondale 50
Gary Hart 32
Jesse Jackson 17
1992:
Bill Clinton 50.7
Jerry Brown 25.8
Paul Tsongas 16.6
Uncommitted 4.8
Tom Harkin 1.1
Bob Kerrey 0.5
If you’re Obama, you probably want it to be 1988 all over again, when Michigan Democrats achieved a majority coalition between black voters and white liberals to put Jesse Jackson over the top:
1988:
Jesse Jackson 53.5
Mike Dukakis 29.0
Dick Gephardt 12.8
Paul Simon 2.1
Al Gore 2.0
If you’re John Edwards, you want 2004 all over again, with Iowa weighing in at a meaningful enough hour to rocket you to the top, as it did with John Kerry in 2004:
2004:
John Kerry 52
Howard Dean 17
John Edwards 13
Al Sharpton 7
Wes Clark 7
Dennis Kucinich
And if you’re Al Gore, you’d probably like to relive 2000 and have everybody else out of the race by then:
2000:
Al Gore 84
Bill Bradley 16
(Note: Bradley had already dropped out.)
But watch carefully one interesting trend that was shared by many of those previous Democratic presidential contests in Michigan. Jackson’s 17 percent in 1984 probably represents a reasonable reflection of black turnout, which went overwhelmingly for Jackson in that year when he did not crossover to attract much support outside the black community. But look also at Gary Hart’s 32 percent. And look at Hart’s “new ideas and change” base alongside of Jerry Brown’s 25.8 percent for his “new ideas and change” campaign in 1992. If circumstances in New Hampshire or Iowa before Michigan narrow this to a two-horse (Clinton-Obama) race, there becomes a strong possibility of a 1988-type coalition between black voters and “new ideas and change” voters behind Obama. And it would put him – if he can ace both those free throws - right up there near the fifty percent mark.
And if that happens, field organization becomes very important because it will be a turnout war, with the added chaos factors of Independents and even Republicans being able to vote in either party's primary, plus challenges regarding black turnout and student turnout. Somehow I think many of the next "Camp Obama" organizing schools are going to be held in Michigan and his Illinois troops will be flooding over the border to Michigan as well.
Michigan’s population of “new ideas and change” voters is owed in part to its massive state university system. The major three universities will all be in session come January 15:
Michigan State University (MSU) in E. Lansing (45,520 students and 4,500 faculty members) will be in session as of January 7.
Wayne State University in Detroit (33,000 students) will be in session as of January 1.
University of Michigan in Ann Arbor (25,555 undergraduate and 14,470 graduate students plus 6,200 faculty members) will be in session as of January 3.
Remember that only 160,000 votes were cast in the 2004 Democratic presidential caucuses in Michigan. If any candidate fires up turnout among groups that don't normally participate, it creates a huge advantage.
In those three public universities alone, there are more than 103,000 students. And there are dozens of smaller colleges and universities throughout Michigan.
Not only can Independents vote in the Democratic primary in Michigan: So can Republicans! And vice versa. It could mean some interesting crossovers by conservative “family values” Democrats (such as anti-abortion Catholics) to the GOP primary and by liberal Republicans (of the sort where six percent of them in Iowa chose Obama in a recent poll there, as well as environmentalist and gay Republicans) to the Democratic primary.
Oh, and Martin Luther King holiday will be on January 21 next year, MLK’s actual birthday on January 15, the day of the primary. Somehow it is not hard to imagine that becoming a campaign meme in January in Michigan, too. Black Americans comprise more than 12 percent of Michigan's population, but a larger share of potential Democratic primary voters.
Anyway, I'm sure others will have additional tidbits to add to this primer. But start cramming for the final exam on January 15... less than 150 days away.
Cherry pie, anyone?