I was mostly kidding about the Pros so I'll leave that until after the Cons. Nice little piece in The Nation by Tom Engelhardt followed with a few inciteful comments by the usual suspects. Hey what is it by the way with The Nation's comments section--only the same dozen or so posters ever post there?
First and foremost my position is that to bomb Iran would make the Iraq foreign policy disaster look like a sock hop. The Pros are limited and border the immoral so for all practical purposes are irrelevant. I'm not going to address the traditional media and White House's disingeuous, factually suspect, fatalistic "drumbeat" to war with Iran. Frankly, unless you're a 25%er, their music sucks and most of us like to dance to good music made by real instruments.
CONS
- Global oil supplies are under intense pressure already and an attack on Iran would exacerbate that tension in ways that should make global markets frightened and could lead to a potential global economic meltdown that would make 70's stagflation look like a nuisance.
- Bombing Iran has the potential to unleash a wave of terrorist attacks all over Europe, the Middle East, possibly America and likely Israel, and solidifies our position as the bad guys in the minds of billions.
- The Saudis and Chinese might scamper to the teller windows to convert dollars and bonds to euros thus further devaluing our already volatile currency and possibly increases interest rates.
- Potentially destabilizes the nominally friendly governments of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan not to mention the inchoate states of Iraq and Afghanistan.
- Puts added pressure on already vulnerable supply lines to our troops in Iraq and further complicates our mission du jour, puts us firmly on the defensive, and prolongs our time there indefinitely.
- Bombing could lead to a full-fledged Iranian backed Shia uprising in Iraq the consequences of which border on the unthinkable.
- Could help align the interests of China, Russia, and Iran in ways both unpredictable and undesirable.
- Undermines, if not outright precludes, the possibility of a near term (10 years) peaceful regime change in Iran.
PROS
- Global economic meltdown might finally lead enough members of the "dying on the vine" party to finally turn on Cheney and Bush and lead to impeachment (that would be the immorality I was talking about--killing people just to dethrone The Dick and the Chimp in Chief).
- It might doom the GOP to irrelevancy for the remainder of my life and wake up enough of the American populace to the true costs of the American way of life and foster an honest dialogue about needed change in our consumptive lifestyles and our place in the world.
I guess that is about the long and short of it. Seems to be saber-rattling, Rovian misdirection, and lunacy at its GOP finest--pursuant to two ends--playing the "fear card" to keep the clock running until 1.20.09 and satiating the neocons thirst for delusional fantasy. Does anyone outside of America believe we are anything but a joke for placing a military unit of another sovereign nation on the list of officially sanctioned terrorist organizations? Get serious--just goes to show these guys still don't understand that terrorism is a tactic. Then again strategy and tactics to these guys are just words to mispronounce.
Now I'm not suggesting the lunatics in the White House aren't capable of almost anything, but I am hopeful that countervailing worldwide and domestic economic/political interests militate against such a disastrous course of action. The downside is so potentially catastrophic for so many that it is hard to envision saner heads not prevailing.