The number 23 evokes thoughts of certain dominating competitors -- Michael Jordan, LeBron James, and David Beckham come to mind -- and today's Gallup poll shows Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton with a 23-point lead over the rest of the field. In Gallup's previous survey, from early August, Clinton had a 22-point lead. In mid-July, Gallup had her with a 12-pt lead. Hillary's trendline looks good.
Gallup's results are as follows:
Clinton: 48%
Obama: 25%
Edwards: 13%
Richardson: 2%
Kucinich: 2%
Dodd: 1%
Clinton Maintains Expanded Lead for Democratic Nomination;
Represents Improved Positioning over June, but Similar to Earlier in 2007
by Lydia Saad
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A new Gallup Poll finds New York Senator Hillary Clinton's strengthened frontrunner status in the Democratic field for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination holding firm, following an early August survey in which she stretched her mid-July 12-point lead over Illinois Senator Barack Obama to 22 points. The latest Gallup Poll, conducted Aug. 13-16, 2007, finds public support for the Democratic nomination at 48% for Clinton and 25% for Obama, giving Clinton a 23-point lead.
Support for former North Carolina senator John Edwards, in third place with 13%, is similar to what he has received since May. However, support for the bottom tier of candidates appears to be dropping off compared with June and July. At 2%, support for New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is not lower by a statistically significant margin than the 4% he received in early August, but it is lower than his readings of 5% in June and July. Similarly, Deleware Senator Joe Biden's current 1% is his weakest showing of the year, and below his high of 4% in July. Ohio Representative Dennis Kucinich and Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd remain mired in the 1%-2% range.
According to Gallup, Clinton holds a 27-point lead over Obama in a head-to-head matchup:
Gallup also observes this pattern in a separate question asking Democrats who they would vote for should the Democratic field narrow down to just Clinton and Obama. Clinton now leads Obama by 27 points on this measure, 61% to 34%. In mid-July, she held a much smaller 12-point lead; however, the current spread is similar to where she stood earlier this year.
What factors have contributed to Hillary's big lead? In my opinion, it's a combination of the following:
- Hillary's outstanding performances in the Democratic debates and forums. Millions of Americans are watching these debates. The Clinton team was nervous before the first debate in Orangesburg, earlier this year, when Hillary had a narrow 5-pt lead over Obama and her campaign fretted privately over whether the vast number of debates would only give her opponents a chance to gang up on her. But Hillary has shone in the debates, and the Obama campaign announced last week that they won't agree to do any more new debates.
- Obama's negative attacks on Hillary ("Bush/Cheney lite") turned off voters
- Karl Rove's and Dana Perino's attacks on Hillary have rallied Democrats to her defense
SOURCES:
http://www.galluppoll.com/...