(In which I argue that the Bush Administration can't be trusted to do anything right, especially a task as anathema to them, and as complex, as losing a war properly.)
The United States, the people of Iraq and its neighboring countries, and the world in general are all worse off than if we had never invaded. We've lost the war in Iraq. Or, to be more specific, George W. Bush lost the war in Iraq, and we will all suffer the consequences.
Quite possibly the most incompetent administration in our nation's history, and you people want them to make all the decisions that have to be made in pulling out of the war. Do we really want them in charge of withdrawal? I say no after the jump.
Every step in the war, from deciding to go to war, to justifying that war, to planning the invasion with what happens afterwards in mind, to securing territory and materiel, to pacifying the population, to awarding reconstruction contracts, to monitoring and enforcing those contracts, to noticing that things were not going as planned, to admitting to the problem, to admitting that the problem needed to be dealt with, to admitting that the problem was not already being dealt with, to coming up with a change in plan that was actually a change, to treating detainees, veterans and our allies fairly, to appointing leaders based on competence rather than political allegiance, the Bush Administration has bungled it all.
Al Qaeda, Iran, the Taliban, Hammas, Hezbolah and Islamic extremists from England to Indonesia are angrier, more organized, better funded and more emboldened than they ever would have been without the invasion. US alliances with Turkey, Saudia Arabia, The Karzai government of Afghanistan, Egypt, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, England, Japan and most every other country have been strained or broken. Distracted by Iraq, we have failed to deal with real problems in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, North Korea, Sudan, Syria, Turkey, DR Congo, Chad, Central African Republic, Nigeria and a slew of other countries. With the US as example, several countries, most notably and ominously Russia, have moved away from Democracy and respect for human rights.
Seeing all this, many sensible people argue that the best thing to do is end the war today. Pull all our troops and equipment to the Kurdish territories and Kuwait, put everything on ships and planes and get home. I tend to agree with this point of view, but with one major reservation. Look back at paragraph one of this essay for a minute. It is all about how the Bushies have extravagantly botched every last thing they have tried to do in Iraq. Are these the people we want planning and coordinating the withdrawal?
Pulling out is not so elementary. What equipment or personnel will be left behind, intentionally or otherwise? How will other countries be involved in aiding, hindering, or harassing our withdrawal? How will we deal with those who have helped, or hurt, us during our time in Iraq? What influence will we try to maintain in Iraq after the withdrawal, and by what means? Which groups will we try to build up, or beat down, before leaving?
If I may ask a rhetorical question, do we trust Bush to make these decisions sensibly? Diplomatically, intellectually, morally and otherwisely, the next president, whoever that is, will be far better equipped to make these decisions, and lead the troops home.
The Bush administration is often accused of stalling for time, hoping to be able to dump the problem of withdrawal into the next president's lap. And this is likely true. But the more I think about it, the more I wonder if maybe that wouldn't be such a bad thing. Bush is president for another 17 months. It will take him at least a year to admit we have to withdraw and come up with some stupid plan about how we are going to do it in a way that makes it look like we won. It will take several more months, threatening war against various of Iraq's neighbors, and wholesale congressional panic before the 2008 elections to get Bush to admit his withdrawal plan is not wildly successful. By that time the new president will have been elected. Maybe it is better at this point just to lay low, pull out of the worst of the combat, stop sending more people and equipment in and wait for competent leadership to arrive.