Kind of a rip off from David Goldstein over at Horsesass.org, but today's post from Goldydoesn't just throw Darcy Burner's primary challenger, Rodney Tom, under a bus. It also illustrates the point that 2008 should prove to be a banner year for Democratic challenges to Tier 1 and 2 Republican held seats. Goldy notes The Washington Post's Chiris Cillizzareport from Democratic Pollster Stan Greenberg at the Yearly Kos Convention...
Think big. As in, big gains for Democrats in both the House and the Senate in 2008. "Do not think conservatively," said Greenberg during a panel discussion on the impact of Iraq on polling and the coming election. "The idea of a 50-seat-plus majority is real."
Greenberg wasn’t the only Democratic strategist predicting huge gains. Tom Mattzie, Washington director of MoveOn.org, insisted that a path existed to a 60-seat majority in the Senate after the 2008 election.
Why the rosy predictions?
Because the 2006 election in which Democrats regained majorities in the House and Senate was a "small point along the way," according to Greenberg, and the data continues to suggest that the political environment is worsening almost daily for Republicans.
And he went on with some polling data...
(see image at http://www.horsesass.org/...
My sympathies (sort of) for Rodney Tom and all (read Goldy's entire post). Might already be a good time for him get the heck out of the way, and get behind Burner. I know Darcy, and Goldy's description of smart, hard working and "force of personality" are right on target.
Despite all that hard work, the 2006 election didn't bring the desired results in the 8th District... or the 4th or the 5th. But it did send an important message... These are seats that can be won:
Darcy Burner very narrowly lost to Reichert by a slim margin of 7341 votes within the large voting population of the 8th CD. She literally had the RNCC on their heels due to her outstanding fundraising and they were bringing in the big guns to boost the former King County Sheriff's warchest and credibility... Credibility being something Reichert is desperately trying to fabricate as the Bushmasters fall in the polls.
Peter Goldmark lost the 5th to a surprising 55 to 44 margin roughly despite his outstanding fundraising and broad Netroots appeal. I had Peter pegged for that race but alas, the Republican drum beating of "Tax Man", the complete antipoly of his platform, had entered the minds of our 5th CD voters and proved that the battle republicans were willing to rage was a dirty one. Since then McMorris has stood fast with the Bush Administration on nearly every vote despite the consequences to less fortunate folks with circumstances just like hers. Peter is now running for Lands Commissioner. I really wished he would run again but the position he seeks is well suited for a man of his talents... but then so was Congress. We need a good candidate in the 5th!
Richard Wright... I like Richard. I consider him a friend and always will. Richard surprised us all. His campaign from nowhere with nearly no money (much of it his own) netted 40% of the vote in a district that seems so distinctly republican words don't convey. But 2006 was another story. A no name candidate, with litte money and a small crew of enthusiastic supporters, pulled in 40% with only one TV ad I can think of. Impressive! 2004 netted the far more conservative, and much better funded Democratic candidate Sandy Matheson only 37%, and Craig Mason of 2002 (who I am a big fan of) only 33%. The Wright campaign numbers were likely the Result of republican fatigue and the fact that self proclaimed "2 term" Doc Hastings', now in his 8th term has been such a low profile non-performer in this district with such important issues as varied as nuclear waste to immigration. The cold war era Hanford site has seen a steady dismantling of employee benefits, and the hot button immigration issue has been upended by his neoconservative aisle mates. Not to mention his stint as the House Ethics Committee Chair where his blatant attempts to disregard the rules led to the utter standstill of congressional ethics giving us the Tom Delay type scandals that are still ferreting out in the public and legal arena's.
It's with this information that we as Progressives of Washington State and the rest of the nation, the ones moving forward, should consider Chiris Cillizza as absolutely correct.
The 4th CD's Democratic candidate, George Fearing, holds a great deal of promise. This is an electoral environment of opportunity in the 4th, and it is capped with a very dedicated Democratic candidate. This is Fearing's second shot at public office. Previously he ran against the 16th Legislative District's incumbent Maureen Walsh. I never thought that was the right race for him because frankly, people like Maureen. Heck, I like Maureen! George lost fair and square. At least one news reporter in this area attempted to paint the loss, and context the arguement, as due to the loss of Walsh's husband. It simply wasn't the case.
But now George may well face an incumbent who is far less liked, and while Hastings may get a great deal of defacto support from the business community for simply being a republican, public support is failing and that is proven by the last election. Business support may well be floundering as well. I recently asked a local shop owner who I know supported Hastings in the 2006 cycle about his feelings and was told it was a matter of trust. He simply could not "trust Doc to make the right choices on the war or anything else". I found that compelling... a staunch Republican ready to look elsewhere. So is Washington State's 4th CD winnable? I think so. But it will all come down to money.
The Fearing campaign is in one of the cheapest markets for advertisement. This means with proper fundraising achievments, no matter how much republicans spend, George Fearing's message will get to the people without mega campaign dollars we are so used to seeing across the country. It will also take two to three times the campaign dollars for republicans to convince the Washington's 4th CD voters to retain Doc Hastings than a Democratic candidate.
And that is goodness in many ways. First, it draws resources away from tier 1 and 2 districts otherwise thought safe by the RNC. Second, it makes this seat really winnable despite republican pre-defined expectations that a 4th CD challenger isn't a threat (Hastings didn't even update his website in 2006) and potentially abandable leaving Hastings only the money he can raise on his own (The Burner/Reichert type race could be catalyst). Lastly, it puts Progressives in the drivers seat to move this district out of the "Dark Ages of Doc Hastings".
Visit George Fearing dot com,and give generously!! Or show everyone you found this great candidate though McCranium.org!