At 7 p.m. ET the first-ever Spanish language US presidential debate will take place on Univision (online at this link).
Univision will delay the broadcast in the Western United States to 7 p.m. in those respective time zones, but livebloggers there can watch it live via Internet.
The candidates will speak in English and be translated to Spanish in real time (translators’ voices will be speaking over the candidates’ own words, and at higher volume). Cable television viewers will be able to use “closed captioning” to read the debate in English, but that won’t be available online.
So I’ll be translating key passages back to English, and so will NC Dem Amy. Any other bilinguals out there? Feel free to pitch in.
I’ll add a debate preview after the jump, and as soon as the debate ends in 90 minutes I’ll add a poll…
Recent ratings show Univision beating ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox and CW among 18-34 year olds nationwide. This debate may well have a larger audience than any previous one.
From the AP summary:
Anchors Jorge Ramos and Maria Elena Salinas will pose questions in Spanish and the candidates will wear earpieces to hear simultaneous translations into English. Similarly, their English answers will be translated into Spanish for the live, 90-minute broadcast…
Two participants — New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd — have objected to the format because they speak Spanish and want to address the viewing audience directly. Debate rules say all answers must be in English to level the contest, but it was unclear whether Richardson or Dodd would comply…
Joe Biden will be skipping the debate, which will be held before a live audience of 3,200 at the University of Miami.
AFP reports that there could be some linguistic fireworks:
…observers admitted that the rule may be difficult to enforce as the candidates aim to show how well they can connect with the 16 million Hispanic voters eligible to cast ballots in next year's election.
"It's live television. Is somebody going to run over and tackle Richardson and Dodd if they start speaking Spanish?" asked Alan Schroeder, a journalism professor at Northeastern University.
Richardson spokesman Pahl Shipley called the rule "kind of ridiculous ... Why the candidates who do speak Spanish should be penalized is fairly frustrating."
The Miami Herald captures the impact of this debate on the Hispanic community:
Pulling off a live televised debate with no less than eight presidential candidates, 150 members of the media, 3,200 ticketholders and potentially millions of viewers requires the precision of a Super Bowl halftime show.
Adding the challenge of translating the debate between Spanish and English is like counting on Janet Jackson to keep her clothes on.
"People who are trained to be interpreters have to be listening in real time and speaking in real time, which gives them very little time to handle the information," said Irene Beibe, a visiting assistant Spanish professor at the University of Miami. "You can't do much thinking, and sometimes you can make mistakes."
American presidents have been lost in translation before. During a tour of Poland, Jimmy Carter said he had a "strong desire to know the Polish people," but a sloppy translator told the crowd that the president had a "carnal desire" for them…
Gebe Martinez writes in Politico.com that the GOP candidates – with the exception of John McCain - have snubbed Univision’s invitation to similarly debate.
The Houston Chronicle notes that Hispanic voters are turned off by the GOP as never before:
"The trends are overwhelming," said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. "It's been a complete collapse among Hispanics for the president."
Exit polls from the 2006 election reflected a nascent anti-Republican trend. Latino support for GOP candidates dropped to 30 percent in 2006 from 40 percent in 2004, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.
Newer polls show that the trend has accelerated, particularly among younger voters. A survey of under-30 Americans for Democracy Corps, a Democratic group, found that Latinos preferred a Democrat for president in 2008 by a margin of 42 percentage points.
And here’s a very interesting profile on the man who’ll be translating Barack Obama live tonight and who leads the team of translators for Univision.
What to Look For:
There’s been much pre-debate chatter about whether Richardson and Dodd, the two Spanish speakers, will break the rule against speaking in Spanish on a Spanish language television debate. (I frankly hope they do; it’s a silly rule, and it’s unclear which of the rival campaigns insisted on it.) And Richardson has a great opportunity since many viewers don’t know he’s Mexican-American or that he grew up, in part, in Mexico City.
But those are more superficial factors compared to the issues that viewers care about, and the dominating issue in the hall tonight will be immigration. More on that in a moment.
But economic issues like health care and education will weigh heavily, as will the war in Iraq. Hispanic voters care about essentially the same things as everyone else.
Some issues of US policy toward Latin America will likely be debated:
- The Cuba Embargo: Obama’s call to ease it, Dodd’s call to eliminate it, and Clinton’ refusal to consider any change in the policy will be the fault line if this matter comes up.
- Meeting with Fidel and Hugo: Look for a rematch over the July 23 YouTube debate when Obama answered a question saying he would be willing to meet with US-shunned world leaders and without preconditions, to which Clinton later called him “irresponsible and frankly naïve” for saying so. Edwards will have an opportunity to clarify his position which has been muddy, at best, to date.
- Plan Colombia: There is a golden opportunity for someone to nail Clinton on her continued support for the multi-billion dollar US military intervention in Colombia and how it has strengthened paramilitary death squads, assassinated hundreds of union organizers, further harmed human rights and corrupted Colombia’s government more and more. Dodd, Obama and Kucinich have all been leading in Congress against Plan Colombia. The one that picks up this ball will score big points.
- Will They Go to LatAm?: Obama’s statement, to the Miami Herald in July, that early in his presidency he plans on visiting South America, specifically Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Evo Morales’ Bolivia would make a good question to the rest of the field.
But the big issue will be immigration policy. Clinton and Obama will remind that they were the two candidates that attended the National Council of La Raza convention this summer in Florida, and that they (along with Dodd and the absent Biden) voted for the immigration reform bill in June. Obama was a cosponsor of that bill. It was the nasty debate over that bill that has caused record interest in the Democratic candidates by Hispanic voters.
If there are any “Lou Dobbs Democrats” here, you’re not likely to be pleased with any of the candidates tonight (and if you have any illusions that Edwards or someone else is going to pick up your ball, prepare for disappointment). They’ll all be falling all over each other to show their pro-immigrant credentials. A request: Let’s please not hijack the debate blogging into the same old arguments over immigration policy; that’s been done on so many diaries before and I’ll be quick to ask you to do your own diary on the topic if it’s that important to you tonight.
In Search of the WMA
The Weapon of Mass Appeal (WMA) among Hispanic voters that one of the candidates has is not the Spanish speaking skills of Richardson and Dodd. Most viewers will either be the children of immigrants, or are immigrants that have US-born children. The one to watch tonight (as in previous debates) is Barack Obama, son of an immigrant. Look for him to mention that prominently, if not repeatedly. If he can punch through with that narrative and draw empathy and identification from other sons and daughters of immigrants tonight, he’ll be on his way surprising the pundits again, this time by winning over a greater share of the Latino vote than the others.
Any thoughts on which candidate surrogates will flood the spin room after the debate? Will former Denver Mayor Federico Peña show up on the heels of his endorsement this week of Obama? Or US Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Il)? Or Obama's national field director Temo Figueroa? Will US Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) or US Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D-NY) show up to help the Clinton spin? Or US Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) for Edwards? Or US Reps Solomon Ortiz and Silvestre Reyes (both D-TX) for Richardson? Will Barbara Richardson make an appearance? How about US Reps Xavier Becerra or Linda Sanchez (both D-CA) for Dodd?
Will the wingnut anti-Castro crowd be able to turn out more than the paltry 35 protesters they were able to turn out to yell at Obama (along with Ron Paul signholders) last month in Miami?
And if you appreciate the translation services, please do consider recommending this diary (by clicking the recommend button on the upper right rail) to keep it visible while the debate is happening.
So here we go… crack open a Corona, get out the chips and salsa, uno… dos… tres… y ¡adelante!