Nope, nothing "BREAKING". And it can't be said to be a "surge" or "collapse" on either side. However, looking at today's national tracking polls from Rasmussen and Gallup, we might be seeing the beginning of a new trend to keep an eye on.
Both of these polls had one day of polling that took place after Hillary's debate performance, and virtually all the data comes after the Florida primary and the departure of Edwards.
After a few days of tightening, the Rasmussen national tracking poll is starting to show a reversal of this trend. Hillary now leads by 8:
Clinton 45%
Obama 37%
Even more striking is the uptick in today's Gallup national tracking poll...check it out. We have seen a clear tightening in this poll over the last couple of weeks, but Hillary suddenly shot up 4 points today while Barack has held steady:
Clinton 48%
Obama 41%
Note that these numbers are also in keeping with the Fox poll released yesterday. Most, if not all, of this data was collected before the debate, but after the Florida/Edwards news.
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You've heard me mention the debate more than once. It seemed obvious to me at the time that it was a huge victory for Hillary. And don't accuse me of having blinders on....for instance I thought Edwards clearly won the South Carolina debate.
Barack did better in the Iraq segment and it may have been his best overall debate, but it wasn't enough. On question after question, Hillary was more commanding and knowledgeable. Really, its simply the difference between a good debater and a great one. And on top of that, she was more likable....delivering the zinger of not only the night but of her entire campaign. Never in my life have I seen a more rapturous response to an answer at a debate. When the massive applause finally waned....it just started right back up again. Poor Wolf had to go to a commercial break!
Another crucial piece of evidence: A diary detailing why Hillary won the debate shot to the very top of the recommended list here at DailyObama. There ya go.
I know this analysis goes against the CW here on this site and in some quarters of the media. However, keep in mind that there was a similar reaction to the debate in New Hampshire....and how'd that one turn out, in hindsight? I said on here at the time (in a comment now in the dustbin) that I thought Hillary would win New Hampshire with that debate performance. My feeling after the last debate was the same: She just won Super Tuesday.
And for once, even Kos agrees with me.