There have been a lot of conflicting reports regarding the actual delegate count for each candidate for President in the Democratic Primary. I've seen counts showing Obama narrowly ahead to Hillary ahead by close to 100 delegates. However, what I haven't seen is a report that has clear methodology that makes the numbers understandable to the average reader...that is until I read the New York Times' count on their web site.
The NYT has a link to an article entitled "How the New York Times Counts Delegates". In that article is one sentence that for me clearly distills their methodology and makes the most sense:
"The New York Times counts only delegates that have been officially selected and are bound by their preferences."
In other words, at this point there is little reason to count unpledged delegates (superdelegates) whose current stated preferences are nonbinding until the Democratic Convention.
[more on the flip]
Based on this methodology by the NYT, Hillary Clinton has a fairly sizable lead of 912 to 741 pledged delegates (171).
This indicates that Hillary's victories in the more populous states have paid real dividends to date.
Hillary's biggest net gains in pledged delegates occurred in the following states: CA, NY, MA, OK, TN, NJ. Obama's biggest gains occurred in the following states: IL, GA, MN. The NYT count has not included 4 caucuses that Obama won by large enough margins to earn net gains: ND, ID, AK, CO. According to CNN, Obama made net gains of +31 delegates (incl. superdelegates), which would reduce Hillary's total advantage to approximately +140.
That said, it seems quite clear that in spite of the hype and speculation about which way superdelegates may turn, these primaries are still in the hands of the voters, and as far as delegates pledged by voters are concerned, Hillary has a pretty solid lead in a hotly contested primary.
Looking down the road, Obama has clear delegate advantages in DC, VA and MD, with the caucus states of ME and WA as tossups and Louisiana a big unknown as Clinton will be strong in northern Louisiana and Obama strong in greater New Orleans.
A new ARG poll in Wisconsin gives Clinton a 9 point lead, suggesting that the race will be close and the candidates will split delegates. The March 4th primaries, including Ohio, RI and Texas favor Clinton and have 420 delegates at stake. PA also favors Clinton and 188 delegates are at stake. North Carolina, Kentucky, Oregon and Indiana will be interesting contests, but the demographics suggest a narrow split of delegates with no candidate receiving a net gain of more than +5.
In short, if we look at actual pledged delegates and look forward to the remaining contests, Hillary Clinton has the edge. If she somehow manages to reduce potential net losses in delegates from the mid-Atlantic states next week, her position will be formindable following the March primaries going into the PA primary.
http://politics.nytimes.com/...