Let's start with the likely assumption that Barack Obama will win the Democratic Party nomination for the 2008 presidential election. Working off that assumption, the question then becomes whether Hillary Clinton has helped or hurt Obama's chances in the general election by not conceding the nomination and forcing Obama to campaign through (at least) Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana.
Reasonable people can and do differ on this question. I think, for the reasons outlined below, the extended primary helps Obama because it provides him with an otherwise unavailable test run to work on wooing his most challenging voting demographic--older working-class white voters.
Before we go too far down the rabbit hole, I must take just a little time to note that the Pennsylvania primary provides a microcosm of why Obama is winning the nomination and Hillary Clinton is losing it. A month ago, Clinton was polling 20+ points ahead of Obama in Pennsylvania based largely on solid support from the large group of older white working-class voters in the state. Her campaign reacted to this reality by falling back on its core theme of inevitability--it started talking, even before Ohio and Texas voted, that Obama should not receive the nomination because he cannot win the support of older, white, working class voters in swing states like Pennsylvania. Obama's campaign reacted to this reality by working to win over those voters.
Now, I am not accusing any campaign's rank-and-file workers/volunteers/supporters of not working their tails off to get their candidate elected. I have never worked/volunteered for a campaign, and I have nothing but respect for people who put in 15 hour days phonebanking and pounding the pavement and doing all of those things that make American democracy great. I am simply noting that, from the top, the campaigns have approached Pennsylvania the same way that they have approached every primary. Clinton's campaign says "I will win, so you better get on board." Obama's campaign says, "Get on board, and then we can win." It warms my cynical heart to see that Obama's approach has worked better among Democrats.
But, I digress a tad. Regardless of her motivations, Hillary Clinton has forced Obama to campaign in Pennsylvania, a state brimming with older, white, working-class voters that have thusfar proven stubbornly immune to Obamamania (see, e.g., Ohio primary). I agree with the pundits who have started to hint that, for all of Obama's success, it will be very hard to win in November if he cannot get more support in the industrial belt (and across the country) from that class of voters. For all of the talk of "redrawing the map," I'd certainly rather start the redrawing process with Ohio and Pennsylvania in our pockets than in McCain's.
So what does that have to do with an extended primary? I have heard people argue that the contested primary in Pennsylvania hurts Obama because it keeps his money and attention away from McCain. And I have heard people argue that it helps Obama because it allows him to build an infrastructure there. And I think that both of these points (as well as their bretheren about negative attacks, McCain news vacuums, etc.) make sense.
But I have not heard many people discuss that this contested primary gives Obama a free trial run at attempting to persuade those older, white, working-class, swing state voters to vote for him. How does he do it? Each strategy comes with upside and downside. Does he go bowling to look more authentic, or does that come off as a publicity stunt? Does he try to engage the racial question to stop the whisper campaign, or does that backfire and make him the "black" candidate? Does he tone down the soaring rhetoric and emphasize policy positions, or does that take away the very thing that inspires people to vote for him in the first place?
This primary provides his campaign (assuming it is working lots of internal polling with good cross-tabbing) with an opportunity to try these things out now--and not for the first time in the general. Did the 6 day bus tour work? If so, I bet that we will see more of it in November. If not, we won't. Did the bowling work? Hopefully, the Obama campaign knows that and will base its general election strategy, in part, on that knowledge.
Obama has an advantage in attempting this trial run. Demographically, if not in policy, Clinton and McCain are alike. Highly-effective, older, white, beer-and-pretzles-appealing politicans with name recognition through the roof--the exact kind of politicians one would expect to naturally appeal to older, white, working-class voters. The more Obama learns about how to run in Pennsylvania against Clinton in the primary, the more he will know about how to run against McCain.
I still remember cringing at some of the things John Kerry tried in 2004 to broaden his appeal with the "common man" against Bush. I can't help but wonder if he had had a chance to try those things out in contested primaries in Pennsylvania and Ohio, he would have been able to come back with John Kerry 2.0 in the general and been a much more effective candidate.
Anyway, if Obama approaches the dauting poll numbers and demography in Pennsylvania the same way that he has approached all of the challenges of this campaign--as opportunities for hard work, evolution, and coalition building--he will be a better candidate in November.
And that is why the contested primary in Pennsylvania helps Obama more than it hurts him.