As most of you know, conventional wisdom is, Tennessee is a safe red state for Republicans. It's listed that way in each poll and survey, analysis by 538 and other poll aggregates everywhere.
I'm an optimist, but have identified a few facts to back up the possibility of an upset in Tennessee. Read more below:
Argument #1:
In March, 2008 AARP, produced a report about Tennessean's opinions on healthcare entitled Long-Term Care in Tennesseewhere they interviewed more than 800 self-identified registered likely voters. On page 14, it offers a telling graph. My diary capabilities are not that great, so i ask you to go to the site to view the telling graph. The words, though are quite clear: A full 37% of those regular voters surveyed claim membership in the Democratic Party, while 29% indicate they are members of the Republican Party. 24% say they are independents.
Argument #2:
Participation in the 2008 Presidential Primary across the state tilted toward Democrats 625,000 to Republicans 554,000. Don't forget, Mike Huckabee was still a strong contender in early February and actually beat McCain in the Volunteer state in the primary.
Argument #3:
While Harold Ford Jr., the Democratic Candidate for the 2006 Senate race from Tennessee lost to Sen. Bob Corker, he did so by only 50,000 votes, out of a total of more than 1.8 million votes cast. Corker unleashed the infamous Playboy / Harold Call Me ad on Ford, and that is thought to have brought out the racist vote for Corker, but most outside the state don't realize Harold Ford Jr. had to battle numerous family skeletons in the closet during that race, including the indictment on corruption charges by his uncle, who shares the Ford name, and was a Tennessee State lawmaker at the time.
Argument #4: The closeness of the race in 2006 forced Republicans to spend more time, attention, resources in Tennessee than they planned and it cost them in many other states.
Argument #5: (and perhaps most important)
Bob Tuke, the Senate Candidate opposing the Republican party's "Don Quixote" for literally tilting at windmills: Lamar Alexander. Bob has a tremendous uphill climb, but he's got a tremendous biography, is a man of real character and more important, life experience that had him helping folks arrange legal adoptions as an adoption attorney, led the Vanderbilt University Law Review while there, served his country in Vietnam as a Marine since he went to college on an ROTC scholarship and was the first high-profile individual from Tennessee to volunteer for Barack's campaign - in early 2007 when convention wisdom was to play cards right, work with Clinton, and hope for a post in her administration.
There's a lot of nasty things to be said about Lamar Alexander. He led the charge to oppose windfarms off the coast of New England because he's got a little $1.5 million retirement shack there. As Secretary of Education, he was for closing that entire department! He opposed the GI Bill for Iraq and Afghanistan vets before he found it was going to pass when he voted for it. In fact, he's been one of the Roadblock Republicans blocking all sorts of legislation this year from SCHIP to medicare revamp to... you name it. More than 20 times has he kept the filibuster going in 2008 alone!
Finally, Lamar was asked at a CSpan event during the Republican Convention how his campaign was going in Tennessee this year. "Oh?" he winked and smugly responded. "I didn't realize I had an opponent!"
Look, we're out in droves registering new voters, enthusiastic for change throughout Tennessee. But we need help from those outside of the state if they can kick in some funding to Tuke's campaign.
Think about it: Harold Ford Jr. showed the nation in the 2006 campaign: If we can compete in the Senate Race in Tennessee, it will focus more attention on the state, take resources away from other races the RNC needs to defend, and ensure Barack and Joe have a real mandate to govern. Only this time, we aim to do more than compete.
We aim to take the seat and send Lamar Alexander into early retirement!
Help us, won't you? Tuke for Tennessee.