The Huffington's Post, Seth Colter Walls, wrote a blockbuster article today, highlighting the fact that most of the major polls that are currently freaking out Obama supporters are the result of questionable Party Id shifts (some polls even have party ID equal). This is despite the fact that Democrats have a 11million vote advantage (& counting) over the GOP.
Many of us are familiar with these tricks. But every time a new poll comes out (this time after the GOP convention) that we don't examine, if we can even get the cross-tabs, that we freak out or accept the fact that Obama is down with out question. We can never believe that they pulled the wool over our eyes again. But they always seem to.
These firms can't stop the madness and their still diddling around on behalf of their media masters.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
This week's mainstream coverage of the presidential horse-race has been dominated by a series of polls showing the McCain-Palin ticket with its first stable lead over Obama and Biden. Gallup's tracking poll, USA Today and CBS News all show the Republicans with some kind of lead over the Democratic ticket. But, interestingly, all three polls were also conducted using a higher sampling of Republican voters than in July, thus raising a question of methodology.
Despite the fact that democrats have a 11million vote advantage over republicans, these polls still decided to shift in the favor of Republicans coming out of their convention, which only gives the perception of McCain really gaining steam.
Despite a raft of advantages in the electorate for Democrats, in September's first Gallup Tracking poll, an equal number of Republicans and Democrats were surveyed (including "leaners") from Sept. 3-5, compared to a 10-point Democratic identification advantage two weeks ago. That partisan makeup of the polling pool resulted in a 5-point lead for McCain in Sept. 5 tracking poll. Meanwhile, the new CBS poll features a 6-point swing in partisan composition toward Republicans, which plays some role in the poll's two-point lead for McCain. Finally, the latest USA Today poll, which claims a four-point edge for McCain, was arrived at after a 10-point swing in partisan makeup toward GOP respondents.
You see the major pollsters are still playing their tricks and depressing Obama stalwarts here on Kos (remember a month ago when Obama gained a 10 point lead with Gallup, Rassmussen mysteriously increased their GOP party ID again +2 points, 1.7% to be exact). Remember that?
Are these party shifts being executed innocently (because registration files aren't loaded) or nefariously to keep the horse race going?
Some polling experts say the changing state of party affiliation in the field is slow to be reflected in polls themselves. Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg told the Huffington Post that "when it comes to registration and turnout, the polls often do a very bad job of taking those [factors] into account," because newly registered voters aren't in the voter files used by firms that survey public opinion. "You could make the argument they are under-representing new registrants," she said, which would mean that the Democrats new edge would not be taken into account.
Monday's USA Today poll had a 48-47 split between Democrats and Republicans surveyed. That represents a nearly 10 point shift in party identification toward Republicans since USA Today's July polling. When asked for comment, USA Today polling editor Jim Norman wrote that "it's possible" that their latest sample includes too many Republicans. Though he added, "it's also possible that we have too many Democrats," because "there's always the chance of an over- or under-representation" in polls.
The noted Prof. Adam Abramowitz, of Emory University, offers his salient opinions:
Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz is highly skeptical of the new Gallup, USA Today and CBS polls. About the latter, which showed a statistically insignificant two point lead for McCain, Abramowitz said: "One reason for the dramatic difference between the two recent CBS polls is that the two samples differed fairly dramatically in terms of partisan composition. The first sample was 35.2% Democratic, 26.2 percent Republicans, and 38.6 percent independent. The second sample was 34.9% Democratic, 31.1% Republican, and 34.0% independent. That's a change from a 9 point Democratic advantage to a 3.8 point Democratic advantage. That alone would probably explain about half of the difference in candidate preferences between the two [CBS] polls."
It seems the GOP and McCain fans are setting themselves up for a fall (or are we?), because the party ID numbers aren't even close. Even the right-leaning Associated Press acknowledges this:
Nationwide, there are about 42 million registered Democrats and about 31 million Republicans, according to statistics compiled by The Associated Press.
The Democrats have posted big gains in many competitive states, including Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Florida. They have also been targeting historically Republican southern states.
Since 2006, the Democrats have added 167,000 voters in North Carolina, while the Republicans have added 36,000.
What about McCain's convention and the Palin factor? Good question. Those events certainly have helped, but McCain was just drawing from a previously depressed group within pre-existant, not additional GOP numbers. Now we need to make it clear. Dems, GOP and Independents can all swing within a specific group (and do, mainly through Independents, with some soft dems, soft repubs though).
Now this is not to say McCain-Palin haven't shown recent movement. They have. Their base (at the moment) seems energized. But the difference is, if party ID was truly representative Obama would still be leading comfortably, or big with most polls, or barely losing or keeping it tight (as he's doing now) with outlier polls like the recent 10 pt USA-Today LV Poll. In other words, when Dem party ID is down, and McCain makes movement, Obama's numbers are not going to appear robust. When party ID is accurately representative (which it rarely is) and there's movement towards Obama, then you get your Bloomberg, Newsweek 13-15 point blowout leads that the media hated. No more of those polls! Lol.
I think the truth or Barack's true representation, lies somewhere in the middle. I think Obama has a natural 5-8% lead out of the 15% Democratic cushion (+11 million out of 73million Dems, Repubs while splitting Indies). You may think his cushion is a little bit more or less (if you feel he has one at all). That's what I think. But if you follow these polls closely, it almost seems they cycle party ID regularly as if on a whim or some periodic schedule.
But my problem is, how come it seems everytime McCain makes a dramatic shift in the polls, it usually follows a good story line (this time Palin and the GOP convention bounce) and is preceded by a perceived inbalanced party ID shift or noticeable increase.
For any potential detractors of this type of article/diary. I would certainly have more faith, if every time a "new Horse Race Poll" came out, it didn't have the chicanery or stench of noticeable, inexplicable party ID shifts attached to/preceding it. Makes sense?
I don't think that's being too disillusioned or partisan.
Prof. Abramowitz agrees:
Despite that, Abramowitz simply doesn't think the overall spike in Republican sampling among all three polling firms is an accurate reflection of the electorate. "It's just not likely," he says. Given how important polls can be in the coverage of the race, even a slight assist to McCain during a period in which he is exciting the Republican base could help him solidify a new narrative in the race, regardless of the partisan facts on the ground.
I agree. The election tone and narrative (through polling)can be defining campaign issues or narratives.
Here are the comments of a former 13yr Gallup Executive, compliments of Kossack, Ingenious Girl:
Former Gallop 13yr Exec Exposes the truth in book
Recommended by: Larsstephens
I just came across this book, and the link also provides you with Chapter 1 in pdf.
http://www.davidwmoore.us/...
By: David R. Moore
"For the first time, David W. Moore—praised as a "scholarly crusader" by the New York Times—reveals that pollsters don't report public opinion,
they manufacture it. And they do so at the peril of our democratic process. While critics cry foul over partisan favoritism in the mainstream media, what's really at work is a power bias that polls legitimate by providing the stamp of public approval."
The moral of the story Kossacks is. Stay strong, volunteer, phone bank, campaign, donate and keep a positive perspective and read through the polls when you can and/or wait for trends, before you get yourself down.
I'm sure the state polls are being done the same way as well (minus a couple of potential outliers, like that North Carolina, SUSA poll).
That's why the Obama Campaign (if you notice) never seems to worry about these sorta things, as much as the breathless press and net-root supporters do. Keep in mind, this is the team (Obama's)that produced the "Obama Spreadsheet". Remember? Despite the myriad swings, soap operas, worry and drama during the democratic primaries, the Obama team pretty much nailed it (state election results & numbers)during the 58 contest. With that kind of success and forecasting under their belt. I'm sure they feel more than equipped to handle, the upcoming 50 state contest on November 4th, as well.
I'm not saying Obama can't lose. He can! We've all discussed the previous bounce models that may end this week or last a month. We'll see and follow this closely of course. Obama also needs to go on the offense (instead continually reacting on defense) and point out all of McCain-Palin's hypocrisies and lies.
Now Sarah Palin; regardless of what we think of her, is the latest media darling. Is there real substance there; probably not. Is she going to do a revealing, potentially game changing interview, who knows? Is the finally media going to do their job (despite McCain campaign threats to the contrary) and expose/vet this womans wafer thin record, credentials and scary positions? Who really knows. Geraldine Ferraro started out like Hot Cakes in 1984 for about a month or so, but her and Mondale's campaign imploded due to repeated scandal and gaffes(sound familiar?)
Don't forget; Democrats have all the structural advantages that laid the smart money on Obama in the first place(you know bad economy, bad incumbent President, negative job loss, etc.. That's all still there. I don't want to jinx Obama, but a little known fact is, that no incumbent party in history has every won the Presidency with all those negative factors against it/present (I know "knock on hard wood twice).
Make no mistake. It will be a fight, with the usual ups and downs and suprising trials and tribulations. But Obama should win (and it may be in the long run a convincing win). Once your in the middle of the storm you can never look ahead and see the clear blue skies. But they will come again (they always do). We will withstand this current storm. So let's take it all in perspective and continue to Press the media for fairness and Obama for toughness. It's too early to toss out the white flag for this fearless, beloved, 1st time black candidate.
I dont' want to hear no more metaphors of:
"The Sky Is Falling, because Obama and our election are calling!"
Okay!
Here's another excellent analysis to the latest Gallup/USA Today poll:
http://www.progressiveelectorate.com...
PS:
I have a Interesting observation on Palin and McCain's recent stumping.
I know both McCain and Palin were supposed to campaign alone starting this weekend (and she was supposed to be in Alaska, to see her son off to Iraq Weds), remember? What happened?
It's obvious they each have problems based off of a current strength (Palin's current, though untested popularity).
I think, McCain is afraid to campaign alone because he doesn't want to see 200 people show up at his functions again. He's gotten used to those big crowds and he'll painfully be reminded that those crowds didn't come out to see him (despite the advantages they bring him), if small again. Palin, on the other hand is probably terrified (or her handlers are) of letting her loose on the campaign trail alone (along with the requisite talk shows, interviews, press conferences or quick sidebar chit chats with meddlesome reporters). McCain even cancelled his town hall in Pennsylvania today (and turned it into another pep rally), because he was frightened at the prospect of Palin taking question from a live audience. I think this goes beyond the advantage of doing large pep rallies. Isn't it usually better to be two places at once? I guess McShame will have a very large, dissapointed crowd tommorow if he didn't tell them in advance Palin wasn't going to be there.
I'm sure he didn't (& won't for the future).