For one of the nation's most strongly Republican states, Nebraska has shown a notably independent streak in statewide elections over the past few decades. Despite having not voted Democratic in a presidential election since 1964, the state routinely elected Democrats to the governorship and the United States Senate, starting with the late Jim Exon, and continuing with the gubernatorial and Senate runs of fellow Democrats Bob Kerrey and Ben Nelson.
This independent streak has cut both ways, in fact; Republican businessman and Vietnam veteran Chuck Hagel won a shocking victory over Nelson, the popular incumbent Governor, in 1996. Nelson was able to come back and win a narrow Senate victory in 2000 against the state's popular attorney general, Don Stenberg.
Notably, all four of Nebraska's recent Senators - Exon, Kerrey, Nelson and Hagel - first won statewide office (governorships for all three Democrats, the Senate for Hagel), with no prior experience in elected office. Nelson was an attorney when he won the governorship, while Exon, Kerrey and Hagel were successful businessmen.
This brings us to Nebraska's current Senate election, and the candidacy of Orange to Blue Democrat Scott Kleeb.
Kleeb has always faced an uphill battle in Nebraska's Senate race, and he does so even today. His opponent is the generally popular former Governor and Agriculture Secretary, Mike Johanns, who won reelection in 2002 with 72% of the vote. Up to this point, even the best polling has shown Kleeb trailing by 15 points, and that poll was conducted back in May. Still, Hagel himself was quoted lousy odds of knocking off Ben Nelson in 1996, and wound up crushing the Democrat by 14 points.
Notably, despite his electoral success, Johanns has his share of detractors. The former Democrat is viewed by some as a political opportunist, having actually sought the chairmanship of the state Democratic Party in the 1980s before switching teams. He has routinely abandoned the jobs to which he was elected or appointed - the mayoralty of Lincoln, the governorship of Nebraska, and subsequently the position of U.S. Agriculture Secretary - in order to move up. Perhaps most damning of all, he has been criticized for his failure to show actual leadership in these powerful positions:
Democratic critics in Nebraska complain that Johanns has been too much of a go-along, get-along guy, reluctant to take stands or to make waves on controversial issues and consequently reluctant to show leadership. They cite the state's finances -- a $400 million deficit -- and his unwillingness to take the lead on hard spending choices. In 2003, he became the first Nebraska governor in three decades to veto the entire budget bill, rather than utilize a line-item veto to cut or reduce specific spending items.
So what sort of chance does Kleeb stand at "pulling a Hagel?"
Kleeb has one terrific institutional advantage; thanks to his strong 2006 campaign for the U.S. House in Nebraska's Third District, he enjoys considerable popularity in the western part of the state - an area long considered inhospitable territory for Democrats. The blueprint for Democratic victory in Nebraska has traditionally been to rack up big margins in the eastern part of the state, particularly Douglas County (Omaha) and Lancaster County (Lincoln), while trying to clear 40% of the vote in the Western part of the state.
Kleeb won 45% of the vote in 2006 in the Third District, and likely enjoys a similar, perhaps greater, level of support there in his Senate run.
Kleeb's challenge, then, is strangely different from that of most Democrats in Nebraska; he needs to increase his levels of support in Omaha and Lincoln, as well as several other eastern counties in the state. Where Kleeb is known, in the western part of the state, he enjoys remarkable support for a Democrat. His challenge is getting known in the areas which traditionally favor Democrats. Currently, Johanns is swamping him in Omaha and Johanns' home turf of Lincoln.
This means that the more resources Kleeb has to advertise in the Omaha media market, the better his chances are of pulling off the upset. As in western Nebraska, Kleeb's chances in the election will improve dramatically if he can become better known in the more traditionally Democratic parts of the state. But unlike Chuck Hagel, Jim Exon and Bob Kerrey before him, Kleeb isn't a wealthy businessman who can afford to finance his own campaign.
The last really close election in Nebraska was the 2000 Senate election, which Ben Nelson won by roughly 15,000 votes. Nelson lost nearly every county in Western Nebraska by a dramatic margin - usually 20+ points - but he managed a 20,000 vote margin in Douglas County and a near-25,000 vote margin in Lancaster County. Those margins enabled him to eke out a narrow victory.
Kleeb won't get margins like that against Mike Johanns in Omaha or Lincoln, but he doesn't necessarily need them. If in fact his numbers are significantly above 40% in Western Nebraska, even a decent performance in the state's bluer areas will put him in the thick of the race.
So Kleeb's chances come down almost entirely to whether or not he can get his message out in the state's more urban areas. If he can amass the financial resources to do this, he's very much in this race. If he cannot, Johanns will defeat him badly in the eastern part of the state and coast to victory.
Here's a clip of Kleeb's latest TV ad, depicting the last four years in 30 seconds:
Nebraska is a small state, and even a little bit of spending there can go quite a long way towards electing a remarkably progressive candidate in one of the nation's most conservative states. So if you want to see genuine change and new leadership in Washington, go to Orange to Blue and help Scott Kleeb make his case.
On the web:
Kleeb for Senate
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