A second place finish in Iowa, beating Clinton, and a third place finish in New Hampshire, increasing his number of votes by nearly 100%, the John Edwards campaign still finds itself being ignored by the media and dismissed by the pundits as largely irrelevant to this race.
This is a narrative that is easily changed though. Four months ago, John McCain was dead and Barack Obama didn't have a chance. 72 hours ago, Hillary Clinton was on the verge of an epic political defeat and the viability of her campaign was being questioned. Anything can and frequently does happen in politics which is a lesson that many need to take to heart. Back your candidate for what they believe in, not because they happen to be up or down at the moment!
The question is, how does John Edwards make himself relevant to "campaign coverage?" Where does he go from here? Can he be successful (i.e. win the nomination) doing it? Can he still win the nomination or will the political stars of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton outshine him?
I put together a game plan for New Hampshire and promised a sequel for South Carolina, and you'll find it below the fold.
South Carolina:John Edwards represented neighboring North Carolina and grew up in South Carolina. This is his home turf. If he can win any of the early primary states this is where he is going to have to do it.
Demographic Challenges:The state presents several challenges for Edwards that weren't present before. First the first African American, and a Clinton are running for the presidency which will reduce his ability to gardener support from the African American community which accounts for almost 50% of the electorate in the democratic primary. Secondly, Clinton is banking on the blue collar workers and women to turn out in favor of her, and is going to court them assiduously. Barack Obama is also going to widely appeal to white collar Democrats, the youth vote and males in the state, all of which he will court heavily.
Perception Challenges: Barack Obama, probably fresh off of a win in Nevada and Hillary Clinton, still enjoying her bounce from New Hampshire, will both bring a tremendous amount of money to the race in South Carolina. They will also bring their high wattage persona and campaigns that will hog the spotlight.
So how does he combat these issues?
- Getting the women vote: The Edwards campaign has a very potent weapon in its arsenal to combat Hillary Clinton's domination of the women vote, Elizabeth Edwards. Elizabeth is the quintessential "steel magnolia" and the campaign would be stupid not to have her front and center selling her husband. They should hold rallies targeting women hosted by Elizabeth, have her advocate in ads for her husband aired during daytime TV and make her available to local media for interviews. Mitigating Hillary Clinton's lead amongst women will help Edwards remain competitive in the state.
- Getting the African American vote: This is going to be the most heavily fought over vote in South Carolina because they make up such a huge percentage of voters on primary day. Battling against Obama, the first viable African American to run for president and against a Clinton, who's husband is beloved by the community, would seem to be a lost cause. But every one of these votes that Edwards wins makes Obama and Clinton enter more unfriendly turf in an effort to make up the difference. How does he make inroads here against two formidable candidates? Talk about poverty, about economic justice, about "the two Americas," and about New Orleans. His message will resonate with African American voters if he is able to hammer those themes. No group in America is better able to understand the two America's concept than African Americans in the south who still have to put up with institutionalized racism and all the evils that brings including horrific schools, lack of opportunity and economic struggle. He needs to also get his prominent African American supporters featured in ads, selling Edwards and his policies to the community.
- Winning back the working class:Another major base of Hillary Clinton's support according to the exit polls is her strong draw of working, blue collar Democrats. John Edwards populist appeal and knowledge of the local area will be key in turning this around. He needs to constantly hold rallies in old mills, hold rallies outside of HMO offices and constantly talk about economic justice and how the big corporations are screwing over America and Americans just to make those socks 3 cents cheaper overseas.
- The Youth Vote Barack Obama's strongest point is his appeal to the youth in America. His ability to turn them out on election day is nothing short of phenomenal. Edwards shouldn't just give this important segment of the vote up. He should give interviews to the student newspapers at major universities, hold Q&A sessions regarding his policies on college affordability, debt relief, graduate student and professor pay and student health care. Efforts should be made to expand the Edwards presence on MySpace, Facebook, and other social networking websites. Furthermore, he should hold some late night rallies on campus to increase interest and to further directly engage the student bodies. He needs to talk about jobs (because a lot of us worry that we won't find any) and he needs to talk about it in ways that are relevant to college students (i.e. not mills). Focusing on H1B visas would be a great place to start.
Going on Offense
In order to punch through the media blackout John Edwards is going to have to go on the offensive, not just to make news but to also make up ground in the polls. I outlined a series of potential areas for "contrast" (which along with "change" and bad sports metaphors and analogies will define the 2008 campaign) that Edwards can use to his advantage.
- Decouple Obama from Change:Obama's campaign is a campaign of "hope" and "change." His outstanding rhetorical abilities have allowed him to sell a message that would laughed off the stage if it was delivered by someone else. His message? That we need to cooperate, negotiate and compromise with Republicans to get things done. By another name, its called the status quo in Washington. If you want to be really really harsh, rhetorically the "post-partisanship" political environment he is advocating for is very similar to what Joe Lieberman has been whining in favor of for years. Essentially the argument is that Obama represents nothing more than a charismatic form of the status quo.
My fellow Democrats, Barack Obama and his policies of compromise and negotiations are exactly what Pelosi and Reid are doing. It has not worked and it is not working. You can not negotiate with people who have no interest in negotiations. When we have sat down to negotiation with Republicans, we brought ideas and they brought knifes to stab us in the back.
This policy of compromise has not brought us an end to the war in Iraq, has NOT expanded S-CHIP, has not protected the civil liberties and privacy of Americans, has not stopped the administration from abusing its authority and torturing prisoners, has not stopped the conservatives from stacking the bench, and has not balanced the budget. We have given and we have given and gotten nothing in return, and now its time for us to give no more!
- Clinton doesn't equal Clinton: Edwards needs to attack the notion that voting for Hillary Clinton is the same returning Bill Clinton to the Oval Office for a third term. According to exit polls its a consideration that many Clinton supporters had in mind. When asked "if Bill Clinton were able to run for a third term, who would they vote for?" A majority of Clinton supporters said Bill instead of Hillary. One just simply needs to point out that just because Hillary Clinton is Bill Clinton's husband doesn't mean that his ability to govern rubbed off on her.
- Requiem for unpopular policiesSince Hillary Clinton seems to also be claiming that she was running a co-presidency with Bill Clinton and that all of the good decisions that were made were, of course, made with her advisement and thus her claim to first lady actually being experience. The best course of action would be to ask her about the less popular positions and policies of the administration such as Don't Ask Don't Tell, DoMA, NAFTA, Somalia and triangulation to see what role she played in crafting, supporting or opposing them. All of these were topics of tremendous debate so if she tries to wiggle out of answering them with a "I don't remember" she will be laughed out of the room.
- Talk about Iran and Pakistan: John Edwards is perceived (incorrectly) as a lightweight in the foreign policy arena. With the growing crisis in the Persian Gulf with Iran and Pakistan's instability threatening to destabilize an entire region, John Edwards shouldn't be afraid to come out and talk about these issues. He should consider making a major foreign policy address to not only address these issues, but his larger foreign policy goals. He should take this opportunity to challenge Hillary Clinton again about her YES vote on the Kyl-Lieberman regarding the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
- You have to fight for change In every great struggle in our country from the Bonus Army- World War One soldiers fighting for their pensions, to busting the monopolies and trusts, to fighting for civil rights, for the right to organize; every great struggle is considered just that because there long drawn out fight that eventually yielded results. It took the national guard to integrate the schools. It took a deadly, drawn out strike for the autoworkers to unionize. It's a simple point that John Edwards needs to make over and over again.
Ideas for Feb.5th will follow shortly.