Senator Obama and Senator Clinton are two- evenly matched candidates with two evenly matched coalitions and the Democratic Party in its wisdom or folly rewards delegates proportionally and not in a winner take all manner. This means that candidates who are evenly matched will likely contiune to fight out over a very long process. Lets begin by looking at the delegate selection plan for the three delegations that all vote on Feb 5th and have the largest of all delegations at the convention[Texas may be bigger than Illinios I am not sure.] Based on a quick study of these three states it is likely the Democratic race has to go be beyond Feb 5th.
California will be electing 370 delegates to the convention on Feb 5th. In my calucations I assume that Hillary begins in California with a Five point edge, leading 45% of the Vote to 40%, with 15% of the popular vote up for grabs. With this breakdown and the nature of the delegate selection process by Congressional District, the breakdown is as follows.
Clinton 163
Obama 152
Up for grabs 55
Given the district nature of the race Obama could lose the Statewide vote in California by as much as eight or nine points and still come close for delegates off of a proper congressional split. What is true is that only 15% of California delegates are really and truly up for grabs, as an Obama 40% California showing would lock down all 152 for him.
New York is the second biggest delegation and here the numbers are even more astounding.
New York is electing 232 delegates, Assuming Hillary begins with a 55 to 30% split the delegates based on some district extrapolation are as follows
Clinton 132
Obama 78
Up for grabs 22
In New York less than 10% of the delegates are truly in contention
Illinois again a very similar story. When giving Obama a 55% to 30% lead in his home state of Illinois. Illinois is electing 153 delegates
The delegates on a district break out as follows
Obama 85
Clinton 53
Up for Grabs 15
For those Sports fans keeping track at home, the average number of contestable delegates hovers between 10 to 15% per each contest. Now were one candidate to take all of the contestable delegates in the every state they would walk away with the nomination however in the more likely event that the vote divide even at the clip they were heading toward based on state or district guess. It is entirely possible that the net result out of New York, Illinios and California is a small delegate win for one candidate or in fact even a delegate tie.
This means that the most likely outcome from Feb 5th is a delegate tie. This race does not appear to be ending anytime soon.