There seem to be 3 plausible scenarios arising post-South Carolina:
- Obama wins: He gains momentum going into the Super Tuesday showdown, especially needed in California, and continues to chip away at Clinton leads in states such as New Jersey. In this scenario, Obama is in good shape to fight to the convention. However, Clinton will do well in many of the Super Tuesday states, thus this scenario could also lead to a brokered convention, in which I would guess that Edwards throws his support to Obama. If Clinton places 2nd, it would increase doubts about Edwards electability and the MSM will continue to claim that its a 2 person race. If Edwards places 2nd, he can again claim that the 'change' agenda is victorious and continue his campaign. Placing 3rd will help to shatter the 'Comeback Kid' narrative that Clinton has developed and will surely lower her polling numbers in the Feb 5th states.
- Edwards wins: Edwards desperately needs a win to 'prove' to the MSM that he is a top-tier candidate and has a chance to win the election. Edwards is polling better against the 'new' Repub frontrunner McCain, and coupled with a primary win, the MSM may actually begin to take notice. If Edwards wins, he will gain momentum for Super Tuesday which could potentially make many of the match-ups a toss-up amongst Obama, Edwards and Clinton. If Obama places 2nd, then he too can claim a 'win' over Clinton which should help his momentum. If Clinton places 2nd, then Obama will have a very tough time with his perceived electability.
- Clinton wins: Winning South Carolina will cement the meme that she is the new 'Comeback Kid' and will help to keep her current polling leads in many of the Super Tuesday states. If Obama places second, (please don't destroy me Edwards supporters), I can't see how his campaign can remain viable. In fact, the MSM would cement the meme that it is now a two person race (as they've already started to do). A Clinton win would also prove that she still maintains the support of a large segment of the black community and may increase the concern of blacks re: Obama's electability. Now if Edwards places 2nd, Obama is in a world of trouble --- in a state with a large black community, he needs to show that he has their support, and minority support in general, to make strong showings in the Super Tuesday states. If he places 3rd, doubts about his general electability will increase, but he does have the resources to continue on nonetheless.
Overall, I am worried as Clinton is my 3rd choice candidate, and I'd much prefer Obama or Edwards. If Clinton wins or places a strong 2nd, she will maintain momentum into Super Tuesday and may well cinch the nomination before the convention. I would prefer a 3rd place finish for her in SC.
From the many diaries, comments and polls here on DailyKos, its apparent to me that Obama and Edwards have the strongest support, and I would argue that many people here prefer both of them over Clinton.
Barring major gaffes, can we expect Obama or Edwards as the nominee if Clinton wins SC? My fear is that once Clinton starts to win, the media narrative of the 'comeback kid' will strengthen and I don't see how she doesn't cinch the nomination before the convention. Now if Clinton comes in 3rd, my fears would subside.
There is a huge debate about whether Edwards is the 'Nader' of 2008. At the moment, I don't see this as a valid argument. However, if Edwards loses big in SC and remains in the race, I would begin to explore this scenario. If Clinton runs away with the Super Tuesday states after such, I can't imagine Edwards having enough clout by the convention to act a broker.
Please, be civil in your comments, but I would propose that if Edwards does not win South Carolina and continues to place 3rd in the following contests, that he drop out and pledges his support to Obama so as to counter the Clinton juggernaut that could arise. If Obama places in 3rd, and if he continues to do poorly and it becomes a Clinton vs Edwards race, I would hope that Obama would drop out and endorse Edwards.
However, my analysis is just that and I could very well be way off. Supposing my analysis is somewhat on target, how long should Edwards stay in the race without winning a state? Many of his supporters are rightfully arguing that he could act as a broker at the convention, but I see it happening differently, in that if Obama doesn't start winning than its going to be a blowout for Clinton that no amount of brokering can change. Granted, if Obama and Edwards hold in there it could be that they could combine forces at the convention to topple Clinton, but the voice inside my head says this would be highly unrealistic.
What are your thoughts?