The emerging storyline heading into the Feb. 5 primaries: the rift between the Latino and African American communities. Governor Bill Richardson has taken to calling Super Tuesday, "Hispanic Primary Day."
Obviously, the existence of this rift hurts Obama heading into a weekend that could make or break his campaign. Obama is having some trouble breaking through to the Latino community. In Adam Nagourney's New York Times article on "Obama's Uneasy Pursuit of Latinos," there's this distubing (for Obama) anecdote:
“Many Latinos are not ready for a person of color,” Natasha Carrillo, 20, of East Los Angeles, said. “I don’t think many Latinos will vote for Obama. There’s always been tension in the black and Latino communities. There’s still that strong ethnic division. I helped organize citizenship drives, and those who I’ve talked to support Clinton.”
But does Obama have a February Surprise?
My prediction is ........
[drumroll]
that Governor Richardson will endorse Barack Obama in the week prior to February 5, if not sooner.
Nagourney writes:
Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, who just dropped his own campaign to become the first Latino president, said that the rivalry between the two groups had eased and that Mr. Obama could transcend many of the differences as he approached Feb. 5 . . . .
He said he might endorse a candidate before Feb. 5, an endorsement that would clearly influence some Hispanics.
Richardson is widely seen as the "trophy endorsement" and a key Latino politician heading into Feb. 5. As the LA TImes' Nicholas and Wallsten reported on Monday:
Erstwhile presidential candidate and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson looms as a trophy endorsement. The candidate who reels in Richardson gets a super delegate and a high-profile Latino who has the loyalty of New Mexico state lawmakers and donors -- all rolled into one.
Heading into Super Tuesday, all three candidates have been assiduously courting Richardson's endorsement.
The report last week that he was dropping out of the Democratic presidential race had barely moved on the wire services when Richardson's phone rang.
It was the Clintons, looking for his endorsement. Phone calls from Obama and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina came soon afterward.
"There's a massive push for endorsements," Richardson, who hasn't committed himself, said in an interview. "It's gone pretty far."
Clinton has been especially courteous of Richardson. As ABC News' Eloise Harper reported on Saturday:
Sen. Hillary Clinton, who rarely gives shout-outs to her Democratic rivals, whether they are in the race or out, delivered an ode to Bill Richardson. Speaking to Sheet Metal Workers in Las Vegas -- Clinton said to the crowd, "I want to thank two people, one of whom is not here and one of whom is. Bill Richardson has been a friend of mine for a long time. He is a distinguished, accomplished American public servant. He has given of himself to the Congress, to the cabinet of our administration when my husband was president. He has served with distinction as the governor of New Mexico. And he broke through a barrier by running for president."
So why do I predict that Richardson will break for Obama?
- Richardson is the Latino Candidate . Richardson has said that he plans to use his endorsement to make a difference. All three candidates have received endorsements in this race. Richardson knows that, as a politician, the value of his endorsement is minimal as compared to party leaders such as John Kerry or Bill Clinton. Richardson's endorsement does have value, however, because Richardson is the Latino politician in this race. The symbolic value of Richardson's endorsement of Obama transcends the horse race of this election and can serve to bring together two communities that, for far too long, have been at odds.
- Richardson is the Peacemaker. Listening to Richardson in the debates, you could hear his pride in his career as a diplomat who produced results. He went to North Korean. He's negotiated with terrorists to obtain the release of hostages. Diplomacy and peacemaking is in Richardson's blood. In the debates, he was the calm, funny voice of reason. He is the peacemaker. And the war between Latino and African American communities is a divide that he would want to bridge through his support of Obama.
- Richardson Ran Against Hillary. It's true that Richardson gained prominence within the Democratic Party under the Clintons. Bill Clinton appointed Richardson the U.N. Ambassador and then appointed him as Secretary of Energy. Still, Richardson decided to run against Hillary:
Even the fact of his candidacy makes a case for his readiness to dish on Hillary Clinton. He’s just young enough at age 60 to have waited for 2012 or 2016 to avoid going against Hillary Clinton, and yet he chose to run against his former boss’ spouse. That indicates that Richardson doesn’t feel especially loyal to either Clinton on the national stage and hints that some fireworks may await us on the primary trail.
Examiner on Richardson
Now that Richardson has tipped his hand that he plans not only on making a Super Tuesday endorsement, but also using that endorsement to make a difference, it would appear that Obama is the odds-on favorite to receive that endorsement.
I think, with successful showings in Nevada and South Carolina, along with an endorsement from Richardson, Obama may be in the frontrunner seat when it comes to courting the Hispanic vote on Super Tuesday. The question is whether Obama seeks to lock-down the Latino vote by making Richardson his Vice President?
Stay tuned!