I have to admit that I'm more intrigued these days with the GOP race than that of my own party. Maybe it's just schadenfreude; maybe it's that nagging feeling that we Democrats will somehow manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Whatever it is, I find myself following the polls for GOP candidates more closely than the latest horse race polls for the Democrats.
I've thought for some time that the only truly dangerous GOP candidate is John McCain. He consistently does well in matchups with Clinton and Obama. Significantly better, in fact, than any other Republican. And with the tendency of voters to dislike Giuliani the more they see of him, McCain's advantage compared to other Republicans grows.
Still, I've consoled myself with a couple of observations. First, I tell myself, the electorate is simply not going to elect a candidate who supports Bush's Iraq policy. Second, as electable as McCain might be, GOP voters are simply not bright enough to nominate him.
I still hold fast to the first comforting thought. But no one can deny that Iraq has declined as a deal breaker for the electorate as a whole. It's entirely possible that by next summer it will re-emerge as the most critical issue in the 2008 election, but as long as US casulaties remain at an "acceptable" level (i.e. page 12 news) and sectarian violence doesn't appear on the evening news day after day, the issue may not be decisive.
As to the second point, there's disturbing evidence that GOP voters may not be as dumb as I'd assumed. As disliked as McCain is among many GOPhers, he stands a good chance of taking third in Iowa and winning New Hampshire. If he can somehow deemphasize his relatively sane views on immigration and global climate change, he could emerge as the GOP frontrunner by SuperTuesday.
Assuming that Thompson's sad campaign comes to an end after New Hampshire and Giuliani continues to tank in the polls, it could come down to a choice among McCain, Romney, and Huckabee representing the three legs of the GOP coalition's stool. If so, I think McCain is best positioned to take the nomination. His foreign policy chops combined with his presumed electability trump his rivals. Huckabee, at best, is going to hold onto about a quarter of GOP voters and Romney's appeal as a "manager" attracts Wall Street Republicans, but not much of anyone else.
I still comfort myself with the thought that McCain is simply too old to win the general election and too disliked by the wingnuts in the GOP to make it that far, but if Romney loses both Iowa and New Hampshire, McCain looks increasingly like the GOP nominee.