Constituencies do matter. Someone left a comment on a diary I wrote the other day that said constituencies were no longer important to winning elections. The Nevada primary illustrates that several key voting blocs were central to Clinton's success.
Hispanics
Clinton defeated Obama 51 to 45 percent, with John Edwards finishing a distant third with 4 percent. Due to a quirk in the rules, however, it wasn't clear if Clinton had won a majority of the state's delegates.
and women
The results in Nevada had encouraging signs for Mrs. Clinton. She did well among women and Hispanics, two constituencies she is counting on as the campaign heads toward a coast-to-coast showdown in 22 states on Feb. 5.
Nevada illustrates Clinton's continued success among two key Democratic constituencies. As Real Clear Politics explains,
Throughout the campaign, Clinton has over-performed among key demographics of the Democratic electorate. In every contest, her gender gap has been pronounced: Women favored her more than men by seven points in Iowa, by seventeen in New Hampshire and by eight points in Nevada. Those gaps are magnified by women's dominance of the voting population; they made up 57% of the vote in Iowa and New Hampshire and 59% in Nevada.
Clinton also did well among voters who ranked the economy as their key issue. There is little doubt that Clinton is showing a surprising ability to motivate the Democratic base. Something the 2004 election proves is desperately needed in the Democratic party.
Obama seems to be weaker in motivating the base. This disturbs me.
The Nevada results still spelled trouble for Obama, whose stunning victory in the Iowa caucuses Jan. 3 has begun to fade amid evidence of his vulnerability among important demographic groups, especially white, working-class Democrats and women.
It's STILL the economy. Clinton scored big among voters who cared about the economy. This is very good for her.
Finally, Clinton is leading among those for whom the economy is a greater issue than the war in Iraq. And thanks to recent events, from the housing and mortgage crisis to the tumbling stock market, those voters are growing in number. In Iowa, she lost economy voters to Obama by ten points, when they made up 35% of the electorate. In New Hampshire, she won by nine, and economy voters inched up to 38% of the total vote. In Nevada, fully half of all voters said the economy was the most important issue to them when given a choice that included the war and health care. Clinton won by nine points among those voters as well.
South Carolina may not be out of reach. Clinton will get a boost in momentum. Whether this momentum will be enough to help her seize victory in South Carolina remains to be seen. Everyone agrees the polls have not been reliable in predicting Democratic outcomes. Still, Obama still enjoys a comfortable lead in polls conducted prior to the Nevada caucus. Clinton will have to campaign hard and convince African American voters that she best represents their interests.
She's incredibly strong on the issues. In New Hampshire and Nevada Hillary has been strongly praised for talking about specific issues and policy prescriptions designed to help individual citizens. Obama has chosen to stick with his message of change (although strong) while neglecting a policy focus.
Clinton should be pleased. She is positioning herself for a strong showing on Super Duper Tuesday.