While the Democrats will be disenfranchised in Florida—we’ll have a primary but we’ve been stripped of our delegate votes by the DNC. You see, Florida voters are important in a General Election but not to select the party’s nominee. Because the GOP-dominated legislature moved the primary date from February 5 to January 29 all the Democratic candidates in a big pucker to DNC Chair Howard Dean have signed a pledge not to campaign in the Sunshine State. Maybe, Florida Democrats should boycott the November election.
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So all the attention in the Florida slugfest turns to the GOP, with John McCain looking to score another victory and narrow the field. McCain may still need Fred Thompson to play outfield. THe role he played to secure his victory in South Carolina.
Giuliani most probably expects his core of support to be condo dwellers from Palm Beach to Dade County and Cuban-Americans. The problem with this analysis is condo dwellers, transplants from NYC and NJ, are either dropping like flies or they are registered Democrats. He needs more. Perhaps, Giuliani believes he can rack up numbers in Tampa/ St Pete and Orlando. Look to this area of the state to be the battleground.
Giuliani has targeted Florida and its 57 delegates, visiting the state almost 30 times, building a staff of 50 and spending millions on television and radio ads. He wrapped up a three-day, 12-city tour earlier this week and will barely leave the state until the primary.
Giuliani also has to realize that the pockets of GOPers in south Florida are evangelicals. Huckabee will be the winner here and in other parts of the state with even higher evangelical populations. These voters can be found in northern Florida and along the I-4 corridor.
Giuliani dominated statewide polls, making a victory here look inevitable. But in the past few weeks his numbers have plunged. A recent Florida poll showed him two points behind John McCain and a national poll had him in fourth. Thursday, a new Strategic Vision poll, one in which Giuliani had led since 2005, had him tumbling to third in Florida behind McCain and Mike Huckabee.
The former-NYC Mayor of course plays well with security conscious voters but even among Republicans the economy seems to be playing center stage. Guiliani has tried to inoculate himself from economic attacks by announcing an economic plan that would include the largest tax cut in history. This too may affect support for McCain or Huckabee.
The talking heads on MSNBC last night said Florida may really be about issues. But as someone who has worked extensively in the Sunshine, Florida is a hardball state. Expect 527s, push polling and robo-calls charging each candidate beats his wife and has pedophile predilections .This may be an exaggeration but they come pretty close. Expect the "Swift Boaters" to work hard here.
Polls may show McCain picking-up a head of steam; but we know about their reliability this year.
Where does that leave John McCain and Mitt Romney? Romney will probably get the support of the Cheeca Lodge set and the voters from Everglades City to Fort Myers.
What’s left for McCain. There are really no moderate Republicans in Florida. They break into economic conservatives, value voters, and the military. McCain’s saving grace may be the military vote in the northern part of the state; but is that enough to bring him home, most likely no.
McCain has apathy on his side; but who knows whether the preachers will really get involved in this race behind a Huckabee candidacy to foment increased turnout among value voters.
There are still GOP voters in Florida who support Huckbee’s position on the Confederate Flag and the integration of the Bible into the constitution. He could do very well among these voters.
So eight years after rebounding from his South Carolina defeat, Florida may be McCain’s Waterloo.
He’d better work that military vote hard and try to remain competitive along the I-4 or he is toast. Another important question for McCain is does he have the organization and money to run a competitive race in a state with nine media markets, eleven if you include Pensacola and Gainsville separately.
We’ll know a week from Tuesday. Will McCain be the GOP standard-bearer the Showdown in Florida is perhaps the last test.