Kevin Drum over at the Washington Monthly's Political Animal blog wrote today that California has a primary system where each party can choose whether they want it to be open or closed. Turns out that Democrats decided they will have an open primary in the state while Republicans opted for a closed primary. Kevin said he doesn't think this will matter for Democrats because our party will win California no matter what. I think it could matter immensely...
Kevin quoted an adviser to former Democratic Gov. Gray Davis as saying:
"Republicans have made the serious, perhaps fatal, error of shutting independent voters out of their primary," said Garry South, who was a top advisor to former Democratic Gov. Gray Davis. "The thing we know about independents is, when they choose to vote in a primary, they tend to stay with that party" in the general election.
This is probably true, but Kevin noted that in a state like California, it wouldn't matter which party independents sided with because the state will go Democratic in the general election anyway (even California Republicans acknowledge this). I agree that California's primary system will not have an impact on which party wins the state in the general election. It does matter, however, because it could help determine which candidate we're up against in the general election.
In New Hampshire, Independents were allowed to choose whether to vote in the Republican or Democratic primary (an open primary). John McCain is the Republican candidate who has built his success in the primary season on the backs of Independent voters:
Romney's advisers said they were fearful that a continuing decline in Giuliani's standing would send his previous supporters to McCain. These advisers argued that McCain would struggle to win Florida because he cannot draw on votes from independents, who supported him in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and where his success was due in no small part to support from independent voters.
Not only did John McCain win New Hampshire, so did Hillary Clinton, the theory being that McCain may have drawn independent voters to the Republican party, voters who may have otherwise been inclined to support Barack Obama. McCain still has an extremely difficult time appealing to the Republican base, due to his positions on torture, immigration, campaign finance reform, etc. If only registered Republicans can vote in the California primary, McCain doesn't stand much of a chance.
The only reason this is important for us is because of the consensus opinion that McCain is the only formidable opponent against any of the potential Democratic nominees. A CNN poll from last week has McCain in a statistical tie in a general election matchup against both Clinton and Obama, while both the Democrats have double-digit leads over Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani. A USA Today/Gallup poll, on the other hand, has McCain leading both Clinton and Obama in the general, 50-47 and 50-45 respectively. We can all agree that McCain is not to be underestimated.
That is why we must do whatever we can to prevent a McCain nomination, and California will help us do this. Kevin Drum, I think, overestimates the safety of California as a Democratic stronghold. While Democrats still outnumber Republicans 43-34, independents account for 1 in 5 California voters. The number of independents in the state has grown by more than 700,000 since 2000, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. By not allowing independents to vote in their primary, Republicans may have effectively killed McCain's chances of winning the state. Now that the country's most populous state has its primary on super-duper Tuesday (Feb. 5) instead of when it used to be (in June), the state's choices for nominees will actually make a huge difference. If McCain loses the state he may have a very difficult time winning the nomination, thereby giving the Democratic nominee, whoever it happens to be, a massive advantage in the general election.
I'd love to know what all you Californians out there think. Am I right that Californian independents could have helped McCain win had they been able to vote for him? Is winning California essential or significant in winning the nomination?