After aggravating more than a few Floridians with a "Florida plays no role" press release, Obama had a change of heart (after being compared to Katherine Harris) and "accidentally" made a national cable buy on CNN which, of course, has 92% market penetration in Florida. A smokin' response from Hillary's campaign ensued:
Just last week the Obama campaign snubbed the people of Florida in a memo that stated that Florida did not matter in the nominating process. After consecutive losses in New Hampshire, Michigan and Nevada, they appear to be changing course. Senator Obama’s flagrant disregard for the pledge that he signed is disturbing and calls the integrity of the pledge into question. |
Hillary's campaign communication director has just announced that "the agreement is off."
Grab your surfboards...
Here is the Observer's blurb about the breakdown of negotiations: Congresswoman Corrine Brown called Harold Wolfson, Hillary's campaign Communications Director, as preparations for tonight's debate in South Carolina took place, and gave him an earful.
COLUMBIA, S.C.—Howard Wolfson just walked out of a debate-prep session into the lobby of a local Hilton and was handed a phone. It was Representative Corrine Brown of Florida.
The Congresswoman was apparently upset about the Obama campaign’s decision to air television ads in Florida—she was watching TV when one of the ads came on—despite a pledge signed by the Democratic candidates not to campaign there to punish the state for violating Democratic National Committee rules.
"The ban is off—the agreement is off," Wolfson said.
He listened for a beat as the Congresswoman told him of her desire to invite Hillary for some last-minute appearances in Florida, and he said, "Then you can say, ‘I hope that Senator Clinton comes down here.’"
After Wolfson got off the phone, I asked him if Obama had violated the pledge. "He clearly violated the pledge," he said. |
So, realistically, what is this going to change? Probably not much. As my diary last week detailed, Obama has been back and forth on his commitment to Florida's Democrats after the DNC's sanctions, originally publicly saying he's "do what's right", but then backhanded Florida in the process of pooh-poohing the Michigan results. After the post-Iowa Obama boomlet, some polls showed Obama within ten points of Hillary, but the first poll out after Nevada shows... an Obama trainwreck. If this new SurveyUSA poll is the way it's going in Florida for Obama after losing New Hampshire, Michigan, and Nevada, Obama HOPES Florida doesn't count.
SurveyUSA Poll taken 1/20/08
517 likely (or already voted) voters
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%
Hillary 56%
Obama 23%
Edwards 12%
Other 4%
Not Sure 5%
|
There it is, folks. Forget the "co-front-runner" propaganda. It's a blowout.
Look at the crosstabs for evidence of how strong this state is for Hillary:
Hispanics surpassed blacks as Florida's largest minority back around 2000; Latinos are about 20%, and blacks are close to 16%.
The Hispanics are solid for Hillary, offsetting Obama's lead among blacks. Hillary performs only slightly better among whites (60%) than she does overall (56%). The huge Hispanic vote makes this no contest, with Obama polling at 9% in this group.
Age?
More bad news for Obama. He didn't win a single age demographic. And he falls into single digits again in the 65+ demographic.
Political Ideology? Surely the Liberals are going for Obama? Um, no. The went for Hillary, even more than the moderates and conservatives (probably because of the Edwards voters in those categories).
Bottom line on the crosstabs? There are a lot of old people and Latinos in Florida, and if you're polling at 9% in these large groups, you're not going to be competitive.
So come on down to Florida, Barack. Bring your swimsuit. The water's fine.