Barack Obama is on the verge of a major win in South Carolina and with some momentum and some good press, he may have a stronger than expected finish on February 5th, but he has to do something first. Without winning a substantial part of the Latino vote, there is no way Obama can win this race. After a win in SC due in large part to heavy African-American support, he must prepare a major address to Latino voters between tomorrow and February 5th.
If Obama can strike a chord with the Latino community and capture a decent share of the Latino vote on February 5th, not just in the West but across the country, he can not only rake in enough delegates to stay competitive, but may end up with a few surprising wins.
If Obama has an impressive win in South Carolina he DOES NOT need to win the most delegates on Super Tuesday...in fact all he needs to do is stay competitive. If he emerges from Super Tuesday with enough wins (at least 6 or 7 states) and a fair share of the delegates in the larger states like California, winning the nomination will still be within his grasp. All he needs to do, image wise, is do well enough to MAINTAIN his current level of support in the POST- Feb. 5th states. Obama is strong in the February 9th states of Washington, Louisiana, and Nebraska, as well as ALL of the Feb 12th contests in Maryland, Virginia, and DC. Coming out of a sweep of those 3 contests, he would take his home state of Hawaii and the progressive state of Wisconsin without much trouble. That evens up the contest again and sets up a showdown on March 4th in Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Texas...where the nomination may finally be decided.
If Obama is...to borrow a phrase from Hillary Clinton, "In it to win It," the strategy is clear. But it requires one big variable coming out in his favor. He MUST control the media narrative. If Hillary can turn the post- February 5th stories into the "crowning of the nominee", which she will certainly push for...the Party may start to coalesce and it could be too late. THAT is why endorsements matter so much right now. If Obama can solidify a substantial base of the Democratic Party in his corner just before Super Tuesday, they will stick with him at least for a brief time after...hopefully for him, enough time to put some wins of his own up on the board.
Any objective analysis at this point would have to say that this race is Hillary’s to lose. But Obama is far from out of the game. He can win, he HAS to appeal to the Latino community, and he HAS to control the story. If he can’t do those things, perhaps he doesn’t deserve the nomination...because no one will win the general election without those skills, certainly not against John McCain.
This is Obama’s moment....silence won’t capture it.
It’s time for him to transcend and make history.