John Edwards’s SC debate success has him surging rapidly in the South Carolina race and continuing to accelerate according to Survey USA’s final 1/25/2008 data. This is confirmed by Zogby’s Friday polling as well.
http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Edwards Debate Video: http://youtube.com/...
Boston Globe 01/25/2008: http://www.boston.com/...
In just the last week, among likely Saturday voters, Survey USA says Edwards has soared nine percentage points, and the Zogby polls show he’s risen six points in the last two days alone.
Although Edwards has risen in every single category measured by Survey USA, some of the gains in the last week have been meteoric. Among Republicans who say they’ll cross over to vote Saturday, Edwards has risen from 12% to 34%. Among Independents he’s up from 27% to 39%. Among White South Carolina voters (who make us 55% of Saturday’s estimated voters), John Edwards is up from 26% to 38% and has tied Hillary Clinton (who has dropped 12% among Whites in the same time.)
http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Here are the tabulated Survey USA changes for the candidates from Jan. 18 to Jan. 25.
Category Edwards % Clinton % Obama %
Independents 27 to 39 32 to 20 29 to 36
% Pts. Change +12% -12% +7%
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Republicans 12 to 34 29 to 31 52 to 26
% Pts. Change +22% +2% -26%
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Democrats 14 to 18 36 to 32 48 to 48
% Pts. Change +4% -4% 0%
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Blacks 3 to 6 20 to 18 74 to 73
% Pts. Change plus 3% minus 2% minus 1%
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Whites 26 to 38 50 to 38 22 to 21
% Pts. Change plus 12% minus 12% minus 1%
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SUSA Ttl. 01/18 15% 36% 46%
SUSA Ttl. 01/25 24% 30% 43%
% Pts. Change plus 9% minus 6% minus 3%
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Zogby 01/23 15% 25% 43%
Zogby 01/25 21% 25% 38%
% Pts. Change +6% 0 -5%
So it seems likely that Edwards will continue rising toward the finish line and Saturday could produce a very exciting race for second place between John Edwards and Hillary Clinton.
Edwards 's Strong South Carolina Debate Performance Has Him Back in the Race
What is very clear is that Edwards’s sterling debate performance in South Carolina has vaulted Edwards back into the race. Again, almost every time people see John Edwards and hear his message, his ratings soar. A big part of Edwards’s continued viability is that Edwards has been spectacular in every debate this year. The South Carolina debate gave Edwards his fifth debate focus group victory in a row. In every Democratic debate this year, focus groups of average Americans have chosen John Edwards as the winner! (In fairness, Obama did tie Edwards as the winner of the Iowa debate Fox focus group, although Edwards was the clear winner in the CNN Iowa focus group.) Here is a summary of Edwards’s debate successes:
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Edwards Wins CNN Iowa Debate Focus Group:
http://www.youtube.com/...
CNN Reporter Mary Snow: "They [the 23 undecided members of the focus group] felt that John Edwards performed the best, with Senator Hillary Clinton right behind him." And 39% of the group said that they would vote for Edwards as a result of the debate.
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Edwards and Obama Win Iowa Debate Fox Focus Group:
http://youtube.com/...
After only two voters of twenty nine in the focus group favored John Edwards coming in to the focus group while eleven favored him after the debate.
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Edwards Wins Fox Nevada Focus Group:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
http://www.youtube.com/...
Frank Luntz’ focus group from Las Vegas of thirty undecided Nevada Democrats declared Edwards the winner.
Luntz:
"How many of you thought John Edwards won?" [1/2 crowd raises hand]
"How many of you came in supporting Senator Edwards?" [About 3 people raise hand]
"On issue after issue, we’re going to show this to you tomorrow night, his language actually scored better than Senator Clinton and Senator Obama."
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Edwards Tops WMUR's New Hampshire Debate Meter:
http://www.wmur.com/...
http://www.youtube.com/...
John Edwards: " Let’s talk about jobs....We’ve had a trade and tax policy that is bleeding American jobs, and all that it has done is pad the profits of the biggest multinational corporations in America...."
"We need a different tax policy; a different trade policy, where the first question is, and this is what I’ll ask when I am President of the United States, "Is this trade proposal, is this tax proposal, is it good for working, middle class Americans?"
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Edwards Wins CNN South Carolina Focus Group:
http://www.opednews.com/...
http://youtube.com/...
Erica Hill talking about CNN's focus group:
Anderson Cooper: "Erica, did your undecided voters in the room say who they felt won?"
Erica Hill: "They did. The interesting thing is they thought that Senator Edwards won the debate." [CNN, 1/21/08]
"What didn't pay off were attacks...That may have played well in the debate hall, but it left our voters cold and left an opening for John Edwards to grab his best reaction."
John Edwards: "This kind of squabbling -- how many children is this going to get health care. How many people are going to get an education from this?" [CNN, 1/21/08]
So the voters of South Carolina face a challenge tomorrow when they vote. Will they base their vote on an American media that continues to suppress positive news about the Edwards’ campaign (although this week has been far better)?
Or, perhaps South Carolinians will follow the lead of their fellow American voters who, in focus group after focus group this year, have found that John Edwards’s message is the clear winner for the American people.