530,322 voted yesterday in South Carolina,
more than 286000 of them - blacks. 81% of black
voters (about 232000) voted for Obama and only 1-2% of blacks voted
for Edwards. However 40% whites voted for Edwards. It is obvious,
that black voters voted by race not by merits.
Obama got only 63000 of non-black voters - much less than Hillary or
Edwards. What is most interesting that number of black voters (CNN
said new 155000 black voters in 2008 compare with 2004) more than
doubled compare with 2004 and they almost all voted for Obama.
You can add to that the obvious problems with pollsters - they used
a wrong assumption about number of black voters and collected wrong
information about how black voters will vote (one may guess that many
people intentionally gave untrue answer to pollsters).
What all this means (with poll):
- Obama's main base is black voters and partially young voters
(for whom empty promise of change is enough reason to vote).
- If Edwards staying in the race than he is helping Obama to collect
undeserved delegates. More Edwards staying - more chances for Obama.
- Even Edwards is the best candidate, he now does not have a chance
to be even a kingmaker. Voting for Edwards is voting for Obama now.
- If Obama will be nominated he will split the base for Democratic
party: he will have support of black voters but majority of other
traditional pro-democratic voters will resend him (as SC exit poll
shows).
- Obama is an easy target for GOP swiftboaters (Rezko, "present" votes,
no experience, empty promises, non-mandatory medical plan, you name it).
Expect many Independents will vote for GOP in general election if Obama
will be nominated.
- Because of all of the above, Obama nomination means a huge defeat
for Democratic party in general election. Good luck with GOP president!