All data is from Rasmussen for reliability. I don't know the sample size so cannot calculate and analyze for significance so have done so on the basis of absolute numbers. If you are an Obama supporter, there is much in this data to make you pretty excited. There is also stuff for Hillary fans to be cheerful about. These 3 states are going down to the wire.
Let us start with California: The latest polls indicate:
HRC: 43%
OBAMA: 40%
JE: 9%
OTHER: 4%
UNDEC: 4%
Now if you are a Hillary fan, take a look at these facts. She has a lead 45-35 among moderate Democrats. She has a huge 27 point lead among Hispanics, a hefty 10 pt lead among women and among the 46% of people who believe Economy is a top issue - she leads by 15 points.
But...and there is always a but, she does have lower favorability ratings among the party (79%) as compared to Obama (83%). Is that statistically significant? I have no idea. Also unlike other states where her voters are more certain that they will vote for her- she gets only 69% certainity, same as Obama. As more undecideds potentially join the fray with Edwards suspending the campaign, no one knows how these numbers will go. Also, this hefty lead she has among hispanics- according to Novak- unreliable. They do not for many reasons turn up to vote as reliably as other voters. Maybe this time they shall, but I would urge you to take that into consideration.
Now for the Obama supporters who have been waiting patiently. He has a 3% lead among liberals, a 3 point lead among white voters, a respectavle 8% point lead among male voters and 8 point lead over the bloc that thinks the War is the most critical issue (29% big). You have already read he has a 4 percentage point lead on favorability- but no idea if this is significant.
He is definately surging, I'll give you that. He has a good chance here at the rate he is growing combined with lower certainity of voting preference.
Now on to the next state.
Massachusetts
HRC: 43
BHO: 37
JE: 11
Undecided:5
Other: 4
Hillary looks good on a lot of measures. The most important being a greater percent of people who are CERTAIN to vote for her (74%). She has strogner 15% leads among women and among people who believe economy is the most critical issue (51% think so).
However, Obama supporters will find it cheering to note that though only 62% of his voters are as certain of their vote, he scores higher on two key measures.
Edwards supporters please look away now.
Most Edwards supporters in this state view him more favorably 78% to Hillary's 58% which means a lot of his voters may go his way. Also he is percieved as slightly more likely to win the general elections 3%. His lead among men is 5% and his lead on the Iraw war bloc (24%) is 10 percentage points.
Now another thing that may be a toss up. Both have similar favorability ratings, but the survey was conducted the night Ted endorsed. We don't know yet if this is reflected in the survey and if it amounted to anything.
My take- this is wait and watch.
Connecticut
HRC: 40
BHO: 40
JE: 11
Undecided: 6%
Other : 3%
Talk about DEAD HEAT. Hillary has a 5 point lead on people certain to vote for her (70% to 65%) but her lead among women is smaller than it is in other states- 4 points.
Compare that to Obama's 6 point lead among men, and higher favorability (81% to 77%). The Edwards factor is complete unknown, and may break according to favorability ratings, or not.
But probably the most critical factor. The poll was taken before Ted's endorsement. I'd wait and see if this effects the polls.
Okay so what is the bottom line:
- Obama is looking very good in California. He is surging, but will he make it in time?
- I consider Massachusetts a wait and see but favoring Hillary. I'd wait for the Ted effect though.
- I think Connecticut will go down to the wire. How popular is Ted in this state? How highly do people view his endorsement?
So, what do the candidates need to do?
My opinion- Hillary really needs to build upon her strengths- certain voters, women, hispanics. Make sure that Hispanic bloc turns up to vote would be critical for her in Ca. Barack needs to appear credible on the economy pronto. He is not going to get the women in my opinion, but he may get people who view Ted favorably and undecided. He does have a slight edge in favorability...if I were him I would try and maintain the image that sustains and builds it. So no tiffs, Obama.
Whoever you support, good luck to you and your candidate.