There is a very clear trend in this race that has two elements.
- Barack Obama is gain ground amongst every demographic. Liberals, Men, Blacks, just about everyone is starting to side with Barack Obama. The poll motion is clearly showing a Movement, as do the crowds. Hillary can have Hallmark, Barack's filling a Dome in St. Louis just before the Superbowl... Don't you think that'll get some airtime?
- Hillary Clinton is parked and is not in the business of winning new voters.
Going into tonight's debate, Hillary was still the front runner, however with the speed with which Obama has been closing the polls, and with the strength of Obama's Kennedy Endorsement + South Carolina Victories, his campaign is expanding very fast while Hillary's is adjusting. The adjustment tonight was painfully obvious: Prevent Defence by Coopting Obama's Message and Tone.
Reasons why Obama may have started down the path to the Nomination Tonight:
- Hillary Clinton was not able to change the direction of the momentum by playing nice. She entered the debate with a strategy to show some humility after the South Carolina trouncing and while people may come away liking her more, she didn't exactly persuade them to vote for her by skipping an answer on Immigrant Licenses and then spending 20 minutes rehashing her Iraq Vote contentions. Obama by Contrast was clear on his positions with Immigrants, did not pander to his base on the issue of Immigration but rather gave a stronger more forceful answer which will win points in the hispanic community. I'd go so far as to call it his sista souljah moment, with the Hispanic Community, the one Demographic he's hurting in. Additionally, he offered a stark contrast to the painful jujitsu that Hillary has to balance every time she discusses Iraq. He sealed the deal when he reminded her of the Title of the Bill she voted on. She didn't fool anybody with her answers, and the vote has come back to haunt her. Democrats need to present the voters with a contrast, and Barack made that clear tonight. While people applauded the red meat line about Bush Mopping, the real line that will win votes was "Right on Day One" especially in the light of her tortured Iraq Experience, which was "belabored" as he hinted...
Immigration with Compassion
- Barack powerfully addressed his biggest Liability: Substance. Say what you want about who was likable or who broke through to you, one thing was certain. Barack Obama spoke substance with vision and his policy proposals were clearly hashed out. He weaved Tax Policy, Economic Policy, Immigration, Foreign Policy, Education, and Leadership though Judgement and being Right & Ready all into a very clear choice for Change. Voters who were wondering prior to tonight where the Beef was were certainly served up large doses of it. Because of this, the arguement of Experience and Substance is now answered. Both candidates are equal on this matter, and one must look to the other intangibles to make a decision. Do you chose Vision and Future in a Change Year? We'll see what the voters think.
- Hillary's attacks on Barack have stopped and this is a net gain for Barack. When Hillary started on the offense / Rezko / Fairtale Contrasts for the last few weeks, she lost ground among undecides and persuadables. Her core voters will always see what they want but the rest of us were appualed and it showed in S. Carolina. Tonight, she had to show humility and grace, and she did. As such, she was unable to blunt Obama's Post S Carolina/Kennedy Momentum because she was not able to contain Obama and instead Obama left the Kodack theatre with what he needed, a Solid Substanitive Performance with no dings or gaffes.
- Obama was able to Persuade Edwards voters and take the Fight to McCain. Watching the Luntz Post Debate, what's stricking is despite Obama's victory, only two new votes were created, both from Edwards voters. Interestingly, tonight Obama showed he had fight in him. He took on Tax Increases, republicans, ending the war, and foreign policy and he took the fight to John McCain. Hillary on the other hand was still sending out red meat to Bush and has failed to address how she can run effectively against John McCain. Big points for Obama, for showing some fight with grace and putting the real enemy in his crosshair. A Disarmed Hillary allowed him this opening and he walked through it effectively.
- Barack had a clear opening statement that set the tone for the debate and frames this election primary better than I've seen from any candidate all year. Just watch it again
- Hillary's questions were cutting pointed and critical while Obama's were softer. Because of this, legitimate concerns and points of conversation were interjected into the public debate. Just because she shot zingers off of the pointed questions doesn't mean she answered them. The public may or may not have considered it this bluntly before but there is concern about Dynastic Presidencies (to wit she gave a lame answer about starting on equal footing completely ignoring universal name rec' advantage), Bill's role in the White House (another bad answer with no real answer), and her non-vote on the Levin Amendment (many Democrats would of agreed to let the UN share a stronger role in the pre-war, which is why it was a Democratic Issue, she harped the GOP's line there). Overall, these are silent Stingers which cause doubt potentially.
In Contrast, Barack was able tonight to make a strong case why he's Experienced.
He was able to show his Vision while Incorporating Substance.
He did it all with Grace.
His Grace was not overshadowed by Hillary's Humility.
He is the one walking high with surging Polls, $32M in the Bank
Lastly, Money. This morning Barack Obama sent out an email stating they had 224,000 donors for January thus far and they wanted to hit 250,000 by midnight.
A Quick Look at this hour shows it's 253,150. That's 30,000 Donations TODAY, TODAY! If you do the fast and dirty math, that means today he probably pulled in $4-$5M, basically the budet of his entire Super Tuesday ad Buy. Don't be surprised if he upstages the Hallmark Telecast with a Network TV Purchase (you heard it here first)....
Barack Obama is in this race to Win it, He's in this race for the Long Haul. He's unveiled a new group of state advertising starting tomorrow in the Post Feb 5th states, and he's now on the offensive. The debate is now on his terms. His Tone. His Vision.
He made this Election about Change
He leashed the beast in Bill by disarming the Attack Dog in S. Carolina
He calmed Hillary and affected Humility
That's real Change, and that's why He May Have Won the Nomination Tonight. The race will be long and tough from here, but make no Mistake, It's now Obama's To Win!
Other Reactions:
Mark Halperin’s grades:
Clinton: A-
Obama: A-
On Obama: “Tenaciously drove his four core issues (change, unity, inspiration, problem solving), and incorporated them into almost every answer.”
Andrew Sullivan
He neutralized her on healthcare and simply cleaned up on the war in Iraq. But most crucial: he seemed like a president. He was already battling McCain. She was still pivoting off Bush. In his body language, he carefully upstaged her, without looking as if he were trying. By the end of the debate, he was pulling her chair back for her.
I'd say that he won the primary election tonight.
Josh Marshall
In the context of the race, I think this helped Obama because it put the two of them on the same level, the same stature level. As I've said before, Obama in general has not been a good debater. But this was a good one for him.
Marc Ambinder
And twenty minutes of Iraq happened. And so I’ll give Obama the edge. Clinton was forced, for about 20 minutes, to recapitulate her vote on Iraq, over and over again. It was tough for her. She seemed to mire herself in the details of history.
Obama came into the debate moving up in polls across the country. His presence was, for the first 45 minutes or so, commanding. His opening statement was pitch perfect, segueing from praise for his rivals to the heart of his message. He ably made his case that this is a change election and the trajectory of change is steeper with Obama. His late-in-the-debate answer on Iraq was much better than hers.
Noam Scheiber
Much of tonight's affair was a draw. But, even during the draw portions, Obama sharpened his responses a lot relative to his recent debate performances. On health care, for example, my gut (and head) still say Hillary has the stronger position substantively. But Obama really cleaned up his slight-mess of an answer from the South Carolina debate, arguing (compellingly) that he doesn't believe there will be 15 million people left out by his plan (as Hillary claims), explaining that there will be ways to punish people who try to game the system, and that, even with Hillary's subsidies, there will be people who can't afford insurance and could therefore be fined or punished for not buying it. And, of course, Obama got to invoke Ted Kennedy on his own behalf, which never hurts.
Obama also nicely cleaned up his slightly-too-cavalier answer from the Las Vegas debate about his organizational skills. (He'd meant to say he was personally disorganized, not a lousy manager, but it gave Hillary an small opening and she exploited it.) Tonight he was much more circumspect while making the same essential point: "[P]art of the task, I believe, of leadership is the hard nuts-and-bolts of getting legislation passed and managing the bureaucracy," he said. "But part of it is also being able to call on the American people to reach higher, to say we shouldn't settle for an economy that does very well for some, but leaves millions of people behind." That's the most idealistic case for an Obama presidency and he made it eloquently.
In general, Obama gave his wonkiest performance of the campaign (which is not the same as the most tedious--which he wasn't), and it served him well. He was extremely fluent on health care policy and foreign policy and really demolished the idea that he's all uplift and no substance.
Roger Simon
Obama exploits the [Iraq] issue in two ways: First, he says Clinton’s vote in favor of the war shows bad judgment.
“I was opposed to Iraq from the start,” Obama said, “and I say that not just to look backwards, but also to look forwards, because I think what the next president has to show is the kind of judgment that will ensure that we are using our military power wisely.”
Second, Obama says that his opposition to the war is something that he can use against the Republicans in the fall.
“I think I will be the Democrat who will be most effective in going up against a John McCain, or any other Republican,” Obama said, “because they all want basically a continuation of George Bush’s policies, [and] because I will offer a clear contrast as somebody who never supported this war, thought it was a bad idea.”
Obama also implied that Clinton might show the same muddled thinking getting U.S. combat troops out of Iraq that she showed getting them in, and that this is why he wants a date definite for withdrawal.
“It can’t be muddy; it can’t be fuzzy,” he said.
And now, the questions start.... Whose next to Endorse?
Gore?
Richardson?
Edwards?
MORNING AFTER INSTA ANALYSIS: The Dem's Played Nice; The Debate was a Draw. I saw nothing on TV this morning to indicate the spin was favoring either candidate. As such, trajectories of the race will remain the same, and my contention that Obama's momentum will continue remains correct. If you caught anything otherwise, let me know.
Here's a finding from Politico that in a group of Ten Undecided California Women, no minds were changed, but hearts were healed.
Six came into the Thursday debate favoring Obama. Four leaned towards Clinton. They walked out feeling the exact same way. Half even said they would be happy with either candidate as the nominee.
Clinton won points for her smarts and self-assurance, Obama for being inspirational and trustworthy.