The mere few days that serve as the gap between Iowa and New Hampshire are just too few to even have a chance of letting the Obama euphoria wear off and for her to build herself up again. Michael Whouley, HRC's chief ground guy is very, very good-but I still think the calendar puts it out of reach for her. So lets make the big assumption that Obama wins New Hampshire on Tuesday (by any margin).
The race then shifts, for all practical purposes, down to South Carolina (yes I know there's Michigan and Nevada but neither have much gotten the media's attention), which is a lousy state for her now that Barack has broken through. HRC was depending on strong support in the African-American community and that has probably disappeared with Iowa. If Obama wins NH, then he should romp through SC and into Florida with a lot of momentum. I'm not saying that Obama has FL in the bag then, but if I'm Hill, I know that I've only probably got one last shot, and I'd want to fight the battle on the ground that I choose.
So, where does the HRC machine make her last stand? She can play in Florida, but the momentum from Obama's victory might be enough to carry him through the Sunshine State. Translation, its no sure thing for her. I think if she can make that primary close, it could be something of a lift to her at that point.
No, if I'm Hillary, I make the Tsunami Tuesday primary all about the battle for one state: California. Its her last, best chance to keep in the race for a wide variety of reasons:
1)Its a place where she can concentrate her union and institutional support to its fullest. HRC has racked up a lot of support from the CA Congressional Delegation, including Senator Diane Feinstein, and one would guess that a large bulk of the institutional support that comes with those endorsements would be put at her disposal.
2)There's a large Latino community in California, and we have yet to see how Obama will play within that community, and therefore, there might be an opening for Hillary to exploit. We could get an inkling of what this dynamic is in Nevada, but I'd be very wary to extrapolate that out on a national scale.
3)Obama can work magic as an orator with small crowds like he's currently done in Iowa and New Hampshire. That's having a disproportionate impact. In California, its largely a campaign run on the airwaves, and Hillary isn't at nearly so much of a disadvantage in the ad wars.
4)Looking at the map, its the only really big prize that's up for grabs that day anyways. Obama will win Illinois going away, and the same goes for Hillary and New York. The next biggest states are Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Georgia for comparison's sake.
5)California, I believe, has a closed primary, so Obama wouldn't be able to hoover up the independent vote as he has elsewhere. ON EDIT: California does indeed have an open primary, so Barack still has that going for him.
All this said, HRC would probably be able to hang in there until February 5th, but she'd likely be backing in, and all bets are off, and I still think the odds are long for her if all this happens.
Agree? Disagree?