Over the past week, I have come to realize more and more that the media, including MSNBC offer absolutely nothing in terms of actual analysis about politics. Especially Chris Matthews. Tom Brokaw still remains my favorite and tonight gave Matthews an important smack-down. However, although Hillary eked out a victory in NH, there are some important dynamics in the results that should receive scrutiny.
The largest takeaway is that there will not be a coronation for this Democratic nomination. While I thought (and hoped) that Obama would have a decisive victory in NH, it was not the case. Each candidate is going to need to work to get out the vote in a variety of local circumstances. This effort on the part of each of the Democratic candidates will pay dividends in November, when the voters of America will elect a Democrat to the White House.
Sure the polls were wrong, turnout in the Democratic primary was high - leading to a Clinton victory, but my takeaway from the NH results is that while Hillary won, and Obama's momentum will slow, the circumstances of Hillary's victory may be hard to duplicate as the campaign moves forward.
First I am generally of the belief that Independent voters broke more for McCain than I expected. I find this comment illustrative:
Could it be possible that independents figured, with the press coverage, that Obama was going to win no matter what, so they decided if they were going to have any effect they should vote in the Republican primary? Therefore Obama suffered the effect that everyone thought McCain was going to suffer of independents going to the other guy? Just a theory with no data to support it.
Chris Bowers at Open Left makes a similar suggestion. If this theory has some merit, I think the Obama campaign will not make the same mistake twice.
Second, while I am not that familiar with New Hampshire politics, this comment struck my eye:
The further you get from the big city, the less effective the Clinton machine seems to be.
A week ago, Clinton was expected to win NH big. The state was her "firewall," and she had locked up much of the establishment support. I think this combination of old-fashioned machine politics and a concentration of establishment support may not be present in many states, especially in Nevada. Obama's last day on the trail in NH was in the college towns, and I think that he will need to work harder to get votes in areas where Clinton might have an advantage.
Substantively, I think Obama needs to address some of the concern of "where's the beef?" I think this criticism of Obama is off the mark, considering his work in Illinois, but I think he needs to be more upfront in saying that he was an effective legislator for progressive causes.
Finally, the question left in my mind following Hillary's historic victory, is who will play "king/queenmaker?" Will Senator's Dodd and Biden endorse one of the current candidates? When will an Al Gore endorsement come? Richardson? John Edwards' endorsement will be especially crucial - when or if he decides that an Obama nomination is more important (to him, his policies, the Democratic Party) than a Clinton nomination. If these individuals decide to choose one candidate over the other, then the process is over.