Something we can all agree on: these dudes suck.
With two states down, the Republicans also have two different winners. Huckabee picks off Iowa, whereas New Hampshire returns to its roots and selects McCain, just like they did in 2000. Romney's managed to finish second both times.
What are the implications? Their race is as wide-open, and I for one am wondering who we'll be campaigning against this fall.
More on the flip.
First, some results, via CNN:
Iowa GOP Caucus Results | |
Huckabee | 34% |
Romney | 25% |
Thompson | 13% |
McCain | 13% |
Paul | 10% |
Giuliani | 4% |
Hunter | 1% |
New Hampshire GOP Primary Results | |
McCain | 37% |
Romney | 32% |
Huckabee | 11% |
Giuliani | 9% |
Paul | 8% |
Thompson | 1% |
Hunter | 0% |
Interesting shake-up between the two. Iowans seem more readily to believe that Thompson really is the ghost of Ronald Reagan, whereas the New Hampshire voters rightly looked askance at Huckabee. Though in his concession last night he framed it as a victory, given his supposed "momentum" in the polling. Meanwhile, Giuliani is trying to spin these lackluster finishes as the start of a movement. Hilarity.
I'm also impressed, to a certain degree, that the Ron Paul folks managed to get their cynical nihilist supporters to actually join in some sort of organized, community-based participatory politics. And it makes me laugh how he's managed to beat Giuliani and Thompson once, and Hunter twice.
Now, the delegate count so far. Again, thank you CNN. Note: this is only the pledged delegates, not those party-affiliated individuals who are allowed to pledge whomever they want.
GOP Delegate Count So Far | |
Romney | 24 |
Huckabee | 18 |
McCain | 10 |
Thompson | 6 |
Paul | 2 |
Hunter | 1 |
Giuliani | 0 |
I'm curious. Will Romney just place second in every one of these and somehow win the nomination as the consistent First Loser? What about Giuliani -- I hear he has Florida locked up. Real Clear Politics seems to agree, though both the Huckster and McRomney are gaining on America's Worst Mayor.
Above all, there is no clear concensus amongst our Republican brethren. I, for one, wish "None of the Above" was a choice in the Republican primary, just to give their voters the chance to be honest.
Nationally, we see different results. Via Real Clear Politics, the average of polls from 12/19 to 1/6:
National GOP Polling | |
Huckabee | 21.3% |
McCain | 20% |
Giuliani | 16.3% |
Romney | 13.3% |
Thompson | 11% |
Paul | 3.7% |
So here's what I like. Nationally, Romney polls in fourth amongst the "base." Yet he might walk off with the nomination after finishing second over and over and over again. Good thing he's so proud of running the Olympics, so he can keep making that "Silver Medal" speech. But this spells even worse news for the GOP in the general election--clearly, there isn't much firm support behind Romney, which could result in a suppressed GOP turnout -- always good news for the Democrats.
Anyways, thoughts?