I just stumbled across this Florida poll on Pollster:
POLL: Datamar Florida Primary
A new Datamar automated survey of likely primary voters in Florida (conducted 1/5 through 1/7) finds:
* Among 541 likely Democratic primary voters, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (40% to 28%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. JOhn Edwards trails at 19%.
* Among 481 likely Republican primary voters, former Gov. Mike Huckabee runs at 24%, former Gov. Mitt Romney at 20%, Sen. John McCain at 18%, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 16%, former Sen. Fred Thompson at 9%.
* All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is 4.2% for likely Democratic primary voters and 4.5% for likely Republican primary voters.
I know this poll was taken before NH, and HRC will likely get some small bump out of it...
But what it points to is the basic evenness of this race. Hillary won NH by 3 points. Barack just got the Cuilinary Workers Union endorsement in Nevada, and could win there, and in South Carolina...Michigan is a wash 'cause no-one but HRC is on the ballot.
Florida is the last big bellwether before the Feb 5th Tsunami: people will be looking to it to help them decide, as no candidate can play massively in the media markets of 22 states.
My point is:
If we continue this three way race, where HRC & BHO are scoring in the high 30's to mid-40's in every race...and JRE is in it until the convention with 15-20% along the way...
well, we're going to have a brokered convention folks.
I'm quoting from NYT here:
To become the Democratic nominee for president, a candidate needs to capture a majority of the 4,040 delegate votes. State primaries and caucuses select 3,248 "pledged" delegates, who are obligated to vote for the candidate their state chose. An additional 792 "unpledged" delegates — consisting mostly of party leaders and elected officials — are free to vote for any candidate.
So - half of the delegates = 2020 + 1 to win the nomination.
If you do the basic math, let's assume this crazy scenario:
HRC scores 40% of all elected delegates: 1299
BHO scores 35% of all elected delegates: 1137
JRE scores 18% of all elected delegates: 585
Other scores 7% of all elected delegates: 227
It would mean that Hillary, to win, would need virtually ALL 792 superdelegates - many of whom are currently pledged to Obama or Edwards, who would likely not let them go in the event of this close scenario.
I know I'll get flamed for tripping the light fantastic here, but the more I'm looking at this process so far, and spinning things forward, I see a long, contested race where no-one breaks away from the pack to sweep it all.
I see the very distinct possibility of the first brokered convention in 40 years.