James Carville once famously said "If you see your opponent drowning, throw the son of a bitch an anvil!" The polls in recent weeks have taken a decided turn for Obama. Many people have given their opinions as to why; the financial crisis, McCain's erratic behavior, McCain going too negative, Obama's performance at the debate... And the list goes on and on. I one other hand point to what I think is the number one reason why McCain is in a free fall in the polls right now. The selection of Sarah Palin. Think thats too easy of an explanation? Follow me below the fold and allow me to show you how it all ties in.
Sarah Palin burst on the scene at a time when John McCain needed a huge boost in his campaign. Because she was a relative unknown she was a seemingly perfect addition to the ticket. After the real or percieved snub of Hillary Clinton by Barack Obama for the VP slot the GOP candidate saw this as a prime opportunity to grab some disgruntled Democrats and add them to his legion of supporters. Sarah Palin was going to bring in the votes of white women. She was going to bring in the evangelical vote. She was going to bring in the Pro Life vote. She was in effect going to save the day for McCain with demographics that he was having a hard time making in roads into. While I admit that she did move some of those people towards McCain for good, many early admirers of Sarah Palin are now at best luke warm on her and at worst are jumping ship. What happened? Is it because of the liberal elitist media? Is it because of her lack of experience? Is it because of the perception of Alaska as being a foreign country? No I dont believe so. The answer in my mind is simply this. Not content with simply allowing Sarah Palin's real accomplishments to stand on there own merits(and anyone would have to admit that her winning the governership and having a very high approval rating are in fact pretty good accomplishments)the McCain campaign decided that they need to make her into Wonder Woman. It is the embellishment of her professional history that has become the anvil around John McCain's neck that will ultimately drag him down to the bottom of the Ocean by the time November 4th comes around.
"Thanks but no thanks to the Bridge to Nowhere!" That was a great line the first time she used it. That she was a no nonsense anti wasteful spending candidate I believe excited a lot of people on both sides of the political spectrum. Now if she had left it at saying it just that one time maybe it could have come and gone without much fan fare. But instead she crammed this line down the throats of the country over and over in her scripted speeches. And wouldn't you know it, some "gotcha" journalist decided to actually look into just how she was able to tell the Congress thanks but no thanks and make them stop sending Alaska all of that money. Now at this point there should be no reason to go throught the details because its safe to say that unless you have a Rush Limbaugh IV, you realize that Sarah Palin was lying through her teeth. I mean every aspect of that statement was a lie. Again at this point I truly believe that if she pulled back from saying it again the American people would have forgiven her. But defiantly she went in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary and having been debunked on just about every fact checking website she decided to press ahead with that narrative. Now most people allow for some lying from politicians. I mean its kinda what they do. But at the point that EVERYONE knows you are lying and you continue to lie then most people feel like you are trying to play them for fools or imply they are stupid. Well we know how the media loves a feeding frenzy and what do you know they found more lies and inconsistencies in the narrative she gave in her speeches. Then we saw the word "Troopergate" hit the headlines. And its at this point that I think the weight of her anvil was first starting to be felt by McCain.
The interviews, my gosh the interviews. Where do I start? When it was announced that Sarah Palin was going to give her first interview to Charlie Gibson there was a loud grown coming from most Democratic/Progressive circles. Most of us pretty much assumed that this was going to be a softer than a nerfball softball interview. Then to our amazement it turned out to be a tough interview. Its an understatement to say that Sarah Palin didnt do well but I think that most of the attention at that time was focused on how hard Charlie Gibson had been on her. I mean he asked her about the Bush Doctrine for crying out loud! But after the dust settled I think a lot of people went back and looked at the interview and looked at the transcript and noticed that she did poorly in an interview that really didnt have any tough questions in it. Now the perceptions of Sarah Palin were dinged again. Not only was she lying about her qualifications to be the VP pick, she was also not very knowledgeable about subjects that most people would want a person a heartbeat away from the presidency to know about. Now instead of talking about his vision for the country John McCain and his surrogates were having to suspend a significant amount of time trying to defend her and her qualifications. That anvil grew just a little bit heavier.
"The fundamentals of our economy are strong." Those words spoken by John McCain on a day when our nation was looking down the barrel of one of the biggest financial crises in our nation's history were tabbed by the aforementioned James Carville as the words that sealed the election for Barack Obama. (Yes I admit I am a HUGE Carville fan no matter how he went after Obama. He is great at what he does and he was doing his job. I think if Obama used him more he could be a lot better asset than some of these schmos I see on MSNBC and FOXNEWS. I would love to see him tear Sean Hannity's ass up on a nightly basis) All of McCain's actions since that time have been seen by most as erratic, flailing, flip flopping, trying like hell to get a solid footing in the middle of this catastrophe and seemingly making every wrong move imaginable. So where does Sarah Palin fit into this? Well first I think most Republicans/Conservatives would say Mitt Romney would have been a much better pick in light of this financial situation. Now I don't know if Mitt Romney could have changed the perception of the McCain campaign and the reaction to the Wall Street crisis but I will say that there is at least the chance that he would have. Sarah Palin had nothing of import to say on the subject of the economy. Because of her horrible showing with Gibson and probably because the campaign itself knows she isn't very knowledgeable they have kept her in a "cone of silence" for weeks. Kind of like the good china, they only bring her out for special occasions and campaign speeches. So at a time when John McCain could have used all the help he could get Sarah Palin was no where to be found. And now we know why....
Katie Couric was chosen as the 2nd journalist to interview Sarah Palin. Again many on the left felt like this would be pretty much a fluff piece not much more serious than the Hannity fluff piece. After watching the interview again some of the attention was turned to Katie Couric but not quite as much this time. People had immediate reactions that this was another tough interview, but I think they quickly shifted from that focus and started to truly examine Sarah Palin. Her response to a question on the bailout was simply mind boggling. It is apparent that had she been put in front of the press during the crisis she would have sunk John McCain's campaign on the spot. Again I believe there were opportunities for her to save herself not just in this interview but to also smooth over some things said during the Gibson interview. The fact that she would not only reaffirm her stance that simply being governer of a state thats close to Russia gives her foreign policy experience she now went further and claimed that Russia harrasses Alaskans all the time "when Putin raiss his head". To make matters worse (which she should be applauded for accomplishing the almost impossible) her answers were barely coherent. I have personally heard drunk homeless people explain the meaning of life in ways that were easier to follow than most of her answers. This is a woman who lauded her running mate's reputation as a reformer but she couldn't even point to a single piece of important legislation he worked on as a Senator. Funny thing because McCain practically reads off her resume every where he goes. Now add on top of that the fact that we now know that cbs declined to air two OTHER clips of her making a fool of herself and it makes average people wonder what in the hell was John McCain thinking. That anvil was getting pretty heavy at this point.
I guess someone in John McCain's campaign finally woke up and realized that Sarah Palin's favorability was in the crapper so now we are subject to the new and improved Palin roll out. Instead of campaigning or working on the bailout John McCain was reduced to playing baby sitter to Sarah Palin in the second round with Katie Couric and make no mistake about it he was acting like her daddy. She was only allowed to speak when he gave her permission and she still didnt exactly hit it out of the park. Then when daddy had to go to workSarah couldn't name any magazines nor newspapers that she has read on a regular basis and she said that it doesn't matter if she believes that climate change is man made when in fact that is the CENTRAL issue in climate change and what should be done about it. She is supposed to go on some friendly talk radio shows all week in preparation for the debate. Somehow I don't think stories about her family and Joe six packis going to turn the tide back in her favor.
A lot of people are saying that expectations are so low that she will inevitably been seen to have won the debate if she just doesnt make any mistakes. But maybe I am missing something here but after those two interviews and the lies she has told repeatedly in all of her speeches does any one truly believe that she can go for 90 minutes without making a major mistake??? And if she does blow the debate, with skepticism of her rising every day how can they possibly rebrand her after the fact??? People point to Dan Quale and try to make the case that he didnt impede George H. W. Bush from the presidency but comparatively Dan Quale looks like Ronald Reagan compared to Sarah Palin. You see average Americans on the right and the left now are pretty sure that Palin is woefully unprepared to help lead this country and be a heartbeat away from the presidency. It has become an indictment against John McCain's character and judgement that he ever picked her in the first place. If she blows it tomorrow even a little I think the weight of her anvil will finally be at critical mass and John McCain will plummet directly to the bottom of all of the polls.